a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by mk
mk  ·  1380 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: There Isn’t a Coronavirus ‘Second Wave’

This is not going to age well.





user-inactivated  ·  1380 days ago  ·  link  ·  
This comment has been deleted.
orbat  ·  1380 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    You may be right, but I think Trump (and especially Pence) are gambling on public perception and media coverage

They definitely are. Conservatives and authoritarians don't care much about any sort of objectively verifiable reality, and this is plainly evident when looking at eg. the "war" on drugs, their stance on sex education (or education in general), their stance on crime (i.e. harsher punishments, which has been shown to not work at all), and so on and so on.

Conservatism/authoritarianism in general appeals to people who can't deal with any sort of complexity, and this has been fairly comprehensively proven. The current situation is complex enough that they'd rather pretend it's all the Other's fault

mk  ·  1372 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Who was this? :( I was gone for a week.

b_b  ·  1372 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Odder

mk  ·  1371 days ago  ·  link  ·  

That sucks. Odder will be missed.

b_b  ·  1371 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I think he'll return. Seemed like he was pretty agitated and probably needed a break, although I'm sorry that I was the person who put him over the edge.

mk  ·  1371 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Figures. You incorrigible ass.

*probably should qualify this as Gen X humor. b_b doesn't need it, but others might.

b_b  ·  1371 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'm probably the only person in America who's a bigger dick in real life than on the internet.

user-inactivated  ·  1362 days ago  ·  link  ·  
This comment has been deleted.
b_b  ·  1361 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Ain't no thang, bro. You know how text-based communication is... Not so good at relating inflection. Never meant any harm, but I'll try to be more sensitive.

kleinbl00  ·  1362 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Welcome back.

wasoxygen  ·  1380 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Can you hazard a more specific prediction?

The article — no paywall from the horse's mouth — makes no predictions, but suggests that things are under control.

When I imagine what a second wave would look like, it would be the original growth in case numbers, then a decline, followed by renewed growth. When I Google "us cases" the first hit looks like a steady rate or slight decline. I question the reliability of the numbers, but that's the evidence we have and I don't see a second wave today.

What about the claims about media, that "talk of an increase in cases dominates cable news coverage"? I search Google News for "us cases" while not logged in to Google.

  Latest stories

KOB

Navajo Nation resumes weekend lockdowns as Arizona virus cases rise

FOX 10 News Phoenix

Navajo Nation resumes weekend lockdowns as Arizona coronavirus cases rise

CBS News

China races to contain a second wave of coronavirus cases in Beijing

NPR

Texas Governor Says 'No Reason Today To Be Alarmed' As Coronavirus Cases Set Record

LancasterOnline

Here are the 10 Pennsylvania counties with the highest rates of new coronavirus cases over the past 2 weeks

morethanthecurve.com

Just 18 new cases of Coronavirus reported on June 16th

CBS News

6 states report record-high jumps in coronavirus cases as reopening plans weighed

New York Post

Texas sees record number of coronavirus cases, hospitalizations

Washington Post

Live updates: Nine states hit record highs for covid-19 cases as Pence calls fear of a second wave ‘overblown’

CNBC

Record spike in new coronavirus cases reported in six U.S. states as reopening accelerates

WAVY.com

Virginia June 16 COVID-19 update: 445 new cases, 18 new deaths reported; Testing numbers continue to stagnate

About ten of those look like alarming stories of high rates. It is no more surprising that hyperlinked headlines will describe "record-high jumps" than it is that the VP would brag about keeping things under control.

mk  ·  1372 days ago  ·  link  ·  

COVID19 is spreading, but distancing rules were/are being relaxed. There will be (is?) a second wave, and it will be worse than the first. Political points of view don't factor into that.

    I question the reliability of the numbers, but that's the evidence we have and I don't see a second wave today.

I didn't see it 8 days ago either, but based on the numbers and behavior, it was easy to predict.

wasoxygen  ·  1368 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    easy to predict

Nothing about this seems easy to predict to me; I am constantly perplexed.

The CDC cases per day metric looks much worse than it did 12 days ago, just what I would think of a a second wave.

But of course "cases" means diagnosed and reported cases, and that number depends on factors unrelated to health.

Mortality seems like a more reliable indicator, "lagging" though it may be. By this measure the CDC reports improvement every week since mid-April, both for deaths involving COVID-19 and deaths from all causes. I note that these reports have a delay of "1 week to 8 weeks or more" so we should come back to check the 5,577 (COVID-19) and 53,678 (all cause) numbers that now appear for the week ending 5/30/2020.

mk  ·  1368 days ago  ·  link  ·  

The median time to death from contracting is about 24 days (5.5 + 18.5). I believe the average is higher than 24, not lower. In two weeks the numbers of deaths will rise like the numbers of cases are now. Check me on that.

I think that deaths from all causes is probably the most conservative measure.

ButterflyEffect  ·  1380 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I don’t think that’s ever been the point from these guys.

mk  ·  1380 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Agreed, but I’m thinking they might regret this before November. If there is unanimous agreement that there is a second wave, it’s a defeat claimed by Pence.

b_b  ·  1380 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Do you think he does this on his own, or does Trump tell him he has to say something nice about him in the media?

b_b  ·  1380 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Does anything from them?