I don't know much of the specific history of this region, beyond Japan trying to "liberate" India from the UK via China, which I believed used this crossing. However, if general history is any guide, letting a dominant power go unchecked after taking whatever it says it has a "historic claim" to is not going to end well. I don't know how you confront China, but it's going to be a task for the next president. W and Obama tried lukewarmly to do so, but both were bogged down in the Mid East too heavily. The world has let China be an aggressor nation for too long, because it's been good for business, but that has to end. Obviously no one is going to start a war over some uninhabited islands in the South Pacific, but if I were India, I'd be throwing a fit to the USA and the EU right about now, and maybe even Russia. This is one issue that could actually unite us.
It isn't exactly Kashmir but it sorta is. Culturally not exactly Kashmir, not particularly Indian and certainly not Chinese. Lots of Muslims in part of it lots of Buddhists in the other. It wasn't a part of Kashmir and than it was and now it isn't so much because it got split off in some administrative police district. They speak Kashmir in Kashmir and some other language Ladakh. This whole conflict zone is super complicated. I only mention the fact that in some people's eyes Ladakh isn't Kashmir because you appreciate nuance. I followed these conflicts pretty close for a few years when I had some Pakistani friends. China fucking around here is pretty normal stuff but also pretty scary. There will be no peace between India and Pakistan while Kashmir is unresolved. All paths to resolution are unpalatable for at least one player who has a hecklers veto, so no real progress ever gets made. It would take an immense amount of courage on both side to work past the hecklers and toward resolution. Modi isn't about working hard toward politically painful consensus so we will see no progress anytime soon. Modi is an arsonist with regards to Hindu Muslim relations, expect things to get worse. There is no chance China backs off if India and Pakistan haven't reached a Kashmir agreement. We know that China has Pakistan's back as much as they have anyones. I've recently been realizing what a shitty ally China hasbeen historically it does seem like they have been better to Pakistan than anyone. I wonder what China would do if significant conflict broke out between the neighbors. I'm pretty sure they would swallow all contested Indian boarder territory and a bit more right off the bat. Blah blah blah, I used to think and read about this a lot and it's a waste of time. They should get that woman who solved the four dimensional knot problem in another post on todays hubski to work on this because it's an unresolvable tangle.
You're right, I definitely appreciate nuance. Stephen Platt made the point in Imperial Twilight that historically, China's foreign policy has been "bow down before me dog" which, if you're a border state, you put up with if the trade is good because it's China. If you're Europe, you put up with it if the trade is good because it's China. But as soon as the trade turns to shit, China gets their ass handed to them. Chinese culture has historically been elitist and absolutist and the utter crushing defeat they felt at the hands of European powers, followed by half a century of foreign domination, remains a wrong that has yet to be righted. Xi's central mission appears to be restoring China to its rightful place in the cosmos (IE dominating everyone else) and since they're really the only star that counts, the impact on everyone else really doesn't fuckin' matter. It wouldn't surprise me at all to read an analysis whereby Chinese backing of Pakistan is purely to keep the India/Pakistan conflict destabilized.
I've talked to Indians and Pakistanis about their perceptions of the conflict. My sample size is real small and way more Pakistan biased. No one seemed very China focused at all. Indians looked at conflict with China as a sideshow to the main event of Pakistan. I'll bet this suits the Chinese just fine. They don't have to do much to keep India off balance. There has never been any significant threat of an Indi/Pak settlement. I'd guess that a Chinese nudge feels like a shove to Indians. It's much easier to inflame opinion on either side in an age of social media. I'm sure that counterbalancing India is the thing China likes best about Pakistan. China and Pakistan share a boarder, were born within a few years of each other, have been roughly used and dominated by the west have historically. I see a lot for them to like about each other beyond hating on India.