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- The correlation between high stakes and people’s willingness to believe quackery is high. And it’s pretty rational.
A low-probability, high-stakes prediction should always be taken seriously. And if your world is so confusing that you can’t determine probabilities, defaulting to assume that prediction will come true may increase your chances of survival.
When things are calm people believe what they tell themselves. When things are crazy they believe what other people tell them.
That’s why we listened to bad forecasts 500 years ago. And why we listen to bad forecasts today.
kleinbl00 has me a on a run of reading articles by Morgan Housel