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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Let's predict the 2020 Dem Iowa Caucus results





kleinbl00  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

am_Unition  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

intel provided by Mike Pompeo

ButterflyEffect  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Iowa is certainly proving that “they are what we thought they were”.

am_Unition  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Judging candidacy/electability by an Iowa caucus is nonsensical.

kingmudsy  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

And yet it predicted the nominee in 7 of the past 9 contested Democratic races. Last time it didn't? 1992. Bill Clinton lost Iowa to Tom Harkin, an Iowan senator.

There's a chicken, there's an egg.

kleinbl00  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

There's a cause and there's an effect. This is like saying that Harvard being full of privileged white children is an indication that only privileged white children have what it takes to get into Harvard.

Here's the Des Moines Register:

    The Iowa caucuses have a poor record of picking presidents, but they play the important role of winnowing the field.

In 2016, Clinton got 49.9% of the delegates while Sanders got 49.6...

...in a system that loves math so much they're using remainders and shit. You mention the '92 election: NONE OF THE ABOVE CAME IN SECOND.

So it all pretty much comes down to a bunch of "see if the witch floats" bullshit amongst a bunch of white-ass 'boomers who, for reasons utterly unassociated with democracy, get to decide that I can't vote for Howard Dean.

kingmudsy  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    There's a cause and there's an effect. This is like saying that Harvard being full of privileged white children is an indication that only privileged white children have what it takes to get into Harvard.

This is what I meant by the chicken/egg statement. Sorry, I can see how that was not obvious

kleinbl00  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yeah and you made the mistake of being non-obvious on a morning where I REALLY NEED TO SHOUT AT PEOPLE. Apologies all around.

am_Unition  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

FUCKING SAME

kingmudsy  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Well shit, we can't just let each other off that easily...I uhhh...Forgot to fold my laundry last night? Is that anything?

kleinbl00  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Slim. Slim odds of your laundry requiring me to vote for Mike Bloomberg in the near future.

kingmudsy  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You don't know what my laundry is like. You couldn't possibly know what my laundry is like. How incredibly ignorant of you kleinbl00. You ass.

kleinbl00  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

...well now I'm curious

kingmudsy  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

If I told you I killed Bloomberg years ago and have been wearing him as a skin-suit, would you be impressed or angry?

kleinbl00  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I would tell you to buy Fox News already and save the universe.

kingmudsy  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

...Who told you about phase three?

kleinbl00  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

GET ON WITH IT ALREADY

steve  ·  1513 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'm dying with laughter

am_Unition  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yes, the problem is that the selection of a candidate is intricately tied to their performance in the Iowa caucus. Causality is irrelevant if we agree that the demographics of Iowans, especially those participating in the primaries, are not representative of the nationwide voting demographics. No debate there.

ButterflyEffect  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yeah but if you only care about white people and mostly care about males theeeeeeeeennnnnn.

Iowa it is!

Edit: I appreciate that kleinbl00 and I share the same sentiment here.

kleinbl00  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

$45m spent on political advertising in Iowa so far. For 170,000 participants.

Every dude out there tweeting his results because the Democratic Party can't get their shit together enough to tabulate 170,000 votes? $264 per voter.

am_Unition  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

:O!

If it costs $1 to count each vote (hahhaha, lucrative!), and my math is right, ...sweating, panting... that's $170k. That'd be less than 0.4% of what was spent trying to influence the voters.

The DNC is already handing Trump an ensemble of weapons with which to de-legitimize the democratic candidate.

Stupidest. Timeline. Ever.

kleinbl00  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Counting the votes virtually guarantees you won't get the results you want.

am_Unition  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

So sad that Bloomberg is trying to steal momentum from Bernie's populist movement with multi-million dollar Superbowl ads.

When I hear the pundits say, "You know, I really think Bernie has a shot at the nomination...", I just think to myself, "Were you dead in 2016?".

am_Unition  ·  1514 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Winner of the 2020 Iowa Democrat caucus: Donald John Trump, Lord of Chaos, Uncertainty, and Despair.

edit: I should demand royalties, I said it first. I guess that's hard to argue when it's a starkly obvious conclusion.