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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Let's predict the 2020 Dem Iowa Caucus results





kleinbl00  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

am_Unition  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

intel provided by Mike Pompeo

ButterflyEffect  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Iowa is certainly proving that “they are what we thought they were”.

am_Unition  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Judging candidacy/electability by an Iowa caucus is nonsensical.

kingmudsy  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

And yet it predicted the nominee in 7 of the past 9 contested Democratic races. Last time it didn't? 1992. Bill Clinton lost Iowa to Tom Harkin, an Iowan senator.

There's a chicken, there's an egg.

kleinbl00  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

There's a cause and there's an effect. This is like saying that Harvard being full of privileged white children is an indication that only privileged white children have what it takes to get into Harvard.

Here's the Des Moines Register:

    The Iowa caucuses have a poor record of picking presidents, but they play the important role of winnowing the field.

In 2016, Clinton got 49.9% of the delegates while Sanders got 49.6...

...in a system that loves math so much they're using remainders and shit. You mention the '92 election: NONE OF THE ABOVE CAME IN SECOND.

So it all pretty much comes down to a bunch of "see if the witch floats" bullshit amongst a bunch of white-ass 'boomers who, for reasons utterly unassociated with democracy, get to decide that I can't vote for Howard Dean.

kingmudsy  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    There's a cause and there's an effect. This is like saying that Harvard being full of privileged white children is an indication that only privileged white children have what it takes to get into Harvard.

This is what I meant by the chicken/egg statement. Sorry, I can see how that was not obvious

kleinbl00  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yeah and you made the mistake of being non-obvious on a morning where I REALLY NEED TO SHOUT AT PEOPLE. Apologies all around.

am_Unition  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

FUCKING SAME

kingmudsy  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Well shit, we can't just let each other off that easily...I uhhh...Forgot to fold my laundry last night? Is that anything?

kleinbl00  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Slim. Slim odds of your laundry requiring me to vote for Mike Bloomberg in the near future.

kingmudsy  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You don't know what my laundry is like. You couldn't possibly know what my laundry is like. How incredibly ignorant of you kleinbl00. You ass.

kleinbl00  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

...well now I'm curious

kingmudsy  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

If I told you I killed Bloomberg years ago and have been wearing him as a skin-suit, would you be impressed or angry?

kleinbl00  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I would tell you to buy Fox News already and save the universe.

kingmudsy  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

...Who told you about phase three?

kleinbl00  ·  61 days ago  ·  link  ·  

GET ON WITH IT ALREADY

steve  ·  61 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'm dying with laughter

am_Unition  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yes, the problem is that the selection of a candidate is intricately tied to their performance in the Iowa caucus. Causality is irrelevant if we agree that the demographics of Iowans, especially those participating in the primaries, are not representative of the nationwide voting demographics. No debate there.

ButterflyEffect  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yeah but if you only care about white people and mostly care about males theeeeeeeeennnnnn.

Iowa it is!

Edit: I appreciate that kleinbl00 and I share the same sentiment here.

kleinbl00  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

$45m spent on political advertising in Iowa so far. For 170,000 participants.

Every dude out there tweeting his results because the Democratic Party can't get their shit together enough to tabulate 170,000 votes? $264 per voter.

am_Unition  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

:O!

If it costs $1 to count each vote (hahhaha, lucrative!), and my math is right, ...sweating, panting... that's $170k. That'd be less than 0.4% of what was spent trying to influence the voters.

The DNC is already handing Trump an ensemble of weapons with which to de-legitimize the democratic candidate.

Stupidest. Timeline. Ever.

kleinbl00  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Counting the votes virtually guarantees you won't get the results you want.

am_Unition  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

So sad that Bloomberg is trying to steal momentum from Bernie's populist movement with multi-million dollar Superbowl ads.

When I hear the pundits say, "You know, I really think Bernie has a shot at the nomination...", I just think to myself, "Were you dead in 2016?".

am_Unition  ·  62 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Winner of the 2020 Iowa Democrat caucus: Donald John Trump, Lord of Chaos, Uncertainty, and Despair.

edit: I should demand royalties, I said it first. I guess that's hard to argue when it's a starkly obvious conclusion.