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comment by goldbludgeon
goldbludgeon  ·  183 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Bridgewater has just bet a billion and a half on a March recession.

So what do you believe will happen if say the market dips? You thinking Great Depression like conditions or something along the lines of the recession in 2009?

kleinbl00  ·  183 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I dunno. More than that, I don't think anybody else does, either. We're at the point where it wouldn't be crazy to see the Fed buying up equities. Then what happens?

The Fed's balance sheet, its willingness to add to it and the historically low cost of lending worldwide are new things under the sun. Anybody trying to project out from where we are now is delving more into geopolitics and psychohistory than economics or investing. I hate the phrase "black swan event" because it implies that shit rushes up out of nowhere but in this case I think it can reasonably be argued that there aren't a lot of relevant prior examples to extrapolate from.