a thoughtful web.
Good ideas and conversation. No ads, no tracking.   Login or Take a Tour!
comment by am_Unition
am_Unition  ·  2211 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Another Giant Step

What was the previous (presumably NOT feckless) “giant step”?

Is the moral of the story that we should all threaten nuclear holocaust more often?

It’s entirely possible that Kim didn’t feel like he had a bargaining chip until roundabouts now. Or that he’s bluffing. Although this definitely looks like progress, I’m hesitant to chalk it up as a win for Trump yet. And not just because I abhor him, although that’s definitely part of it, not gonna lie (neither will my post history).





goobster  ·  2211 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Kim just found a weak-minded, impulsive, and petty man-child. And baited him.

He has managed to, in one deft move, legitimize North Korea, and bring this backward, fucked up country into the elite club of "world leaders".

By poking at Trump's vanity.

NK has wanted this for DECADES.

But other US Presidents were savvy at negotiation, or at least had savvy advisors. There is a reason, after all, that diplomats and embassies exist. They do the base negotiations, and drag the other country around to a reasonable stance on common issues, BEFORE you bring in the executives to sign the final paper.

You don't get to that table without doing the hard work, first.

Unless, of course, you tweet at Trump.

kleinbl00  ·  2211 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    Kim just found a weak-minded, impulsive, and petty man-child. And baited him.

I think this underestimates the North Korean approach. The past year has been provocation to see what we'd do and from a clear-eyed foreign policy perspective, the answer has been "nothing." North Korea then met with South Korea without any involvement from us - I think that's a new thing under the sun, too.

North Korea had nothing to lose from telling the South Koreans "hey, we'd love to meet with the US as equals" and South Korea has nothing to lose from passing along the message. The meeting doesn't even have to happen now - Trump could walk it back for any reason whatsoever and now we're the problem.

Fundamentally, North Korea has been exploring just how dire our foreign policy situation truly is. And, because our foreign policy situation is dictated by Fox & Friends, North Korea has been slotted into the hole that used to be filled by the USSR.

North Korea had nothing to lose and everything to gain so why not get invited to the White House?

I mean, what if we agreed?

goobster  ·  2208 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    I think this underestimates the North Korean approach. The past year has been provocation to see what we'd do and from a clear-eyed foreign policy perspective, the answer has been "nothing." North Korea then met with South Korea without any involvement from us - I think that's a new thing under the sun, too.

I've been thinking about this comment all weekend, and I think I know what I don't like about it, and I italicized it.

With Trump's general abdication of all foreign policy positions that the US has lead for the last 50 years, South Korea saw that they were no longer beholden to the US's terms of engagement, and that if anything were going to happen, they had to take the lead.

The Olympics were the perfect opportunity to step out of the US's shadow, and become the Lead Negotiator in driving a new relationship with NK and KJU.

Countries are no longer burdened by worrying about what the US may think about their actions, and how we may interpret their efforts, diplomatically, because our diplomatic corps has been decimated, and Trump has no understanding of the world markets or political scene. He also has no more advisors on staff who have any understanding of the world outside of a narrow, 200-mile wide band, extending from about W 148th in Manhattan in the north, to Norfolk, VA in the south. (Mar a Lago is obviously on an island somewhere in the Caribbean, to these people.)

Trump has effectively eliminated the US's "soft power", world-wide, and SK's direct conciliatory moves towards NK are proof positive of that.

If Clinton were President, this could not have happened. Diplomats would have talked back-channel, and NK would have been consistently shitty about their failure to adhere to the terms of any prior agreements, and the diplomats would have been forced to say, "Sorry. No talks with the Prez, then. You are clearly not interested in reaching a deal, because you have already failed to live up to your previous commitments, so why should we open talks with you again? You are just going to lie again."

And ... wait ... did I just argue that the diplomacy we have practiced ever since the end of WWII is no longer relevant today, and we should just start with a clean slate with all the Bad Actors in the world, and try again with their new management?!?

Hm.

That would mean I think that - in the long run - Trump did something good.

I'ma gonna have to go sit with that uncomfortable thought for a bit... eeewwwww ....

kleinbl00  ·  2208 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    And ... wait ... did I just argue that the diplomacy we have practiced ever since the end of WWII is no longer relevant today, and we should just start with a clean slate with all the Bad Actors in the world, and try again with their new management?!?

Nope, you didn't. You just argued that if you can't deal with inferiors as inferiors, try treating them as equals. b_b points out above that this is basically the US giving up on North Korea and caving to their demands. A regime that makes Nazi Germany look humanitarian. A criminal enterprise run like a cult. A starvation engine hell-bent on total control of its population. And we just gave 'em a status bump to "outfits we negotiate as equals with."

We had regular UN inspections under Clinton. In fact, when shit went sideways under Bush, North Korea asked for their Clinton-era team (Sig Hecker and Bill Richardson). We had a shit-ton of humanitarian aid flood in in response to the great North Korean famine. And then Bush fucked it all up and now they have a nuclear program.

And a missile program. No agricultural programs, no civil programs. They're burning everything they got to look impressive. Kim was eliminating rivals at a pace unseen in the history of North Korea - usually not a sign of stability. You don't wipe nerve gas on your brother's nose when you're comfortable in your position as ruler.

But now?

Now he's invited himself to talks.