The commodities trading community has been taking aluminum and steel tariffs as a given since the election.
Someone on the radio said this sets American trade back to 100 years. Which I don't know if I buy because it seems to be based on the last time we had protectionist tariffs. But WaPo quotes the idiot as saying "trade Wars are easy to win." He makes W. look like a Nobel physicist
...I dunno about a hundred years but China has no fucks to give; the countries most burned by aluminum and steel tariffs are Canada and Canada respectively. China isn't a top ten exporter to the United States for either material. From that perspective we're in a pretty stupid place. I'm not sure what trade war we'd fight with Canada. This one? I guess? It's like that time W wanted Sweden to police the Middle East because they were neutral (he was thinking Switzerland, of course) but there aren't any grownups Trump will listen to. People love pointing out that Trump will basically do whatever the last person who flattered him suggests. Eisenhower had the same problem but Eisenhower was a skilled administrator with the perspective of a talented military leader. Trump is a guy who loses money on casinos.
So there are multiple reasons I've heard for Trump imposing this tariff. Fulfilling his campaign promises is one reason. But something more compelling if true (and much grosser). There's a special election for the vacated House seat in western Pennsylvania in about 10 days. Reason for the vacancy was that an anti-abortion GOP Rep stepped down after it was revealed that he asked the woman he was having an affair with... to have an abortion. Just GOP things. Anyways, I’m hearing that this tariff on steel and aluminum was announced now so as to boost the popularity of the GOP in this Pennsylvania race. Presumably because Trump doesn't want to be embarrassed losing a rural House seat he carried by 20 points to a Democrat. Or is that reading too simplistic?
1) He's a protectionist oaf. A trade war was basically one of his campaign promises. 2) To quote Stephen Colbert, he has the attention span of a goldfish that hasn't taken its ritalin. He met with steel peeps like 20 minutes before deciding we were in a trade war. 3) He's easy to flatter. "Mr. President, the fine people of Pennsylvania will love you if you shit all over Canada." 4) If the special election goes Democrat he can drop the trade war because tantrums. If the special election goes Republican he can drop the trade war because victory. A normal politician would be deeply worried about the impact to his credibility for acting in such a fickle and uninformed manner but Trump is hardly a normal politician. Speaking for myself? The issue isn't so much about pissing off international partners and screwing up trade. The issue is that normal diplomatic procedure and credibility simply isn't available anymore. If you wanna know why North and South Korea are getting together without the United States, this is why. If you want to know why Iran and Saudi Arabia are about to go from proxy to hot, this is why.
If you wanna know why North and South Korea are getting together without the United States, this is why.