Ah. I see we have different base assumptions about what an autonomous vehicle is going to be. For me, the self-driving, smart-as-a-chauffeur, version of the AV is really a pipe dream. The real map of the world is just too complex and changing for anything other than a true AI to be able to operate within. What i see is that all AVs will be interconnected, and constantly communicating with each other. So they will be able to "see" several blocks, even miles, ahead, and adapt their operation for the conditions. This means following distances between vehicles of inches, rather than car lengths. Road widths with tolerances measured in less than a foot. Visualize independent train cars that are virtually linked together, rather than physically. This seems far more likely of a future for AVs. This already exists on production lines today. Scaling it up, and providing safe operating zones for these transport pods, are really the only limitations. Segregating AV traffic from human-driven vehicles is key, though. So reconsidering road widths, composition, merging, etc, you wind up with something much more like bicycle paths, than the streets and highways we use today. That's my pipe dream. (And the AVs can operate someone autonomously - but slowly - in the suburbs, until they pool together and move as a unit to the AV-only road.)
What i see is that all AVs will be interconnected, and constantly communicating with each other. Funny, I think of it exactly the other way. Mapping the real world is within the realm of possibilities - I mean this article is 5 years old by now. Besides, sensory input will always trump map knowledge. I talked to someone from TomTom a while ago. IIRC, when a dozen of their users drive over a new road they'll push that update to other users. Permanently connected and highly reliable wireless connections that risk taking depends on? I'll believe it when I see it. When you have such a train of V2V connected cars, it only takes one malfunctioning / package-not-arriving car to screw it up for everyone behind it. 4G LTE (or even 5G) might be fast, but whenever I am at a busy train station it chokes the fuck out. My Bluetooth gets choppy when I move my head too quickly, and that's at a distance of less than a foot from my phone. Wireless tech is worse the denser your urban area is, while for AV's the opposite needs to be true. It exists on production lines because those are static, isolated environments, while (urban) roads are much more dynamic and prone to errors and interference. I think so too, at least for the near future, unless Google seriously gets their shit together. There's also a handful of public road tests, which could prove hopeful, but they are quite far removed from the ideal high-frequency, high-capacity bus replacement that I'm looking for.The real map of the world is just too complex and changing for anything other than a true AI to be able to operate within.
Segregating AV traffic from human-driven vehicles is key, though. So reconsidering road widths, composition, merging, etc, you wind up with something much more like bicycle paths, than the streets and highways we use today.