The Washington Post has apparently obtained some e-mails from high up in the Trump campaign, including one of their foreign policy advisors trying to set up a meeting with Putin. It was met with concerns by at least one Trump advisor (Real Adm. Charles Kubic) saying that it could be a violation of the Logan Act. Paul Manafort was on these messages, and expressed similar concerns.
He (via his lawyer) is now trying to use this to show that this is proof that there was no illegal activity by the campaign with respect to meetings with Russians and the like.
The problem, though, is that this all took place before Manafort met with a lawyer with close ties to the Russian government. So if he's ever charged, this is proof that he knew that meetings with Russian-connected folks could be a problem. In the words of one former prosecutor quoted by Business Insider:
- If anyone on those emails later met with Russians or accepted aid from them, the prior emails about concerns could be used to indicate that they knew that the meeting was problematic and potentially illegal but nonetheless persisted.
Interestingly, Business Insider suggested that the fact that Mueller was able to get a search warrant for Manafort's home "indicates that Mueller managed to convince a federal judge that Manafort would try to conceal or destroy documents subpoenaed by a grand jury."
I don't think it's reasonable to say the raid means Manafort had criminal evidence he wanted to hide or destroy. Muller convinced the grand jury that if that evidence existed, it could be destroyed, and that risk is great enough to justify a search.the fact that Mueller was able to get a search warrant for Manafort's home "indicates that Mueller managed to convince a federal judge that Manafort would try to conceal or destroy documents subpoenaed by a grand jury."
I'm still watching a bit. I've reduced new developments down to somewhat of a binary scoring system: polarizing vs. irrefutably factual. Trump's continuing debacle of failing to openly renounce white supremacy & co. is more on the irrefutably factual side. But not totally, cuz.. white supremacists (maybe between 5-10% of the country?). I expect his approval rating to dip at least a couple of percentage points beginning today, continuing through the end of the week. The developments surrounding the Manafort raid are more polarizing, because as you've said, "...convince a federal judge...". The judicial branch has already been repeatedly denounced by Trump, and through several different media platforms. If this, alone, was the big news of the week, I wouldn't expect his approval rating to fluctuate in any meaningful way. Trump may be using the new controversy as a distraction, there's no way to know. I get tired of guessing sometimes, but I'll probably never be able to stop watching. This could very well be the biggest political phenomenon of our lives, right?
Good point. What I'm really interested to see is the extent to which Trump's approval ratings affect the 2018 midterms. Of course, the X factor there is the extent to which the Democrats shoot themselves in the foot. God I hope so. I'm not sure I could handle something more extreme. I think I'm already tired of winning.Trump may be using the new controversy as a distraction, there's no way to know. I get tired of guessing sometimes, but I'll probably never be able to stop watching. This could very well be the biggest political phenomenon of our lives, right?