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comment by veen
veen  ·  2552 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Self-driving cars can't cure traffic. Surge pricing can.

So I agree in the general points you make, but disagree with the specifics, and I think it mostly has to do with this assumption:

    When you eliminate those vectors of uncertainty from the calculation, you can fit FAR more vehicles into the current traffic pattern, with little/no impact on the current traffic flow and control mechanisms.

While AVs are much more accurate and can be far more stable than regular cars, I don't think AVs can eliminate those uncertainties. I also don't think that infrastructure will be changed all that much to AVs. Sure, we can redraw the lines to fit three vehicles next to each other instead of two, but one of the reasons I think AVs are such an incredibly promising technology development is that you don't need to build new infrastructure. No rollercoaster-like tubes necessary.

(Sidenote about that: you're forgetting the impact G-forces have on the rider experience. If I'm in an AV, I don't want to spill my drink because my car decided to go off the highway. The general public does not like even minor G forces, especially not in day-to-day vehicles. )

Another thing that you ought to keep in mind is that infrastructure changes will always involve or depend on the government. Seeing the sluggish progress on something non-physical like the regulatory frameworks indicates to me the government's reluctance to radically change its infrastructure to this new tech.

In my opinion the real efficiencies are to be found at the use of resources and energy to transport all the people in, say, a city. Moving to all-electric, demand-driven taxi-like AVs will, without

    Because all the AVs are talking to one another constantly

That is still something I need to see to believe. I think that vehicle-to-cellular-to-vehicle communication will be inevitable (e.g., communicating roadworks quickly to all vehicles) but that vehicle-to-vehicle communication and harmonization of control is something that will end up not being reliable enough. Platooning - the term coined for train-like AV's - is now being tested at at least a few feet of distance, and while I do see vehicles being close together based on camera vision / radar, I don't think the swarm-like AV behaviours that people dream of is actually feasible.