counterpoint: as someone who didn't live through any of the above events, this does feel pretty upheavalesque (to me)
No disagreement. But does it feel nuclear? Does it feel "doomsday?" You can't have it both ways: either you're freaked out that the country is being run by a puppet of Putin, or you're freaked out that the country is going to nuke the shit out of Putin. Disruption is one thing. Ain't nobody gonna call this business as usual. But missiles flyin' armageddon? The fucking Forest Service isn't taking him seriously. You think the Strategic Air Command is going to end the world any time soon? Here, let me spin you up some scenarios. 1) Pakistan gets salty over Israel. Trump threatens to nuke Pakistan. Pakistan says "bring it." Israel calms shit down because Pakistan can't nuke the US even if they wanted to. Stock market tanks, big headlines, everyone worried, world carries on. 2) Russia invades Poland again. our newly-empty State department protests clumsily, and American troops wonder what the fuck they should do. Shots are fired, people get testy, and Poland becomes Russian again. Europe is super-upset and salty but fuckin' A Trump ain't gonna do shit for Europe and we all know it. 3) Russia decides to push into Kazakhstan. At which point the Chinese lose their shit because they've got massive oil trade deals with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan and China isn't run by Trump so that's no more of a danger now than it was a year ago. 4) China annexes Taiwan. Trump blusters but he doesn't give a fuck about Taiwan and you embargo China and Walmart, Target, Home Depot, Best Buy, Ikea, the Apple Store and 2/3rds of Amazon are empty so fuckin' forget everything about that. China owns Taiwan. Did you see the news today? Trump tweeted about how mexico was paying for the wall or he was cancelling his meeting with Mexico. Mexico tweeted they were cancelling the meeting. Trump tweeted sheepishly an hour later that it was a mutual decision. This is not a man who will launch missiles. He doesn't even know how to shake down a failed narcostate.
I suspect that, in the THEORETICAL event of (2), your best option is to hie thee to Germany. Russia isn't going to invade Poland. Russia is definitely attempting to influence the Polish government via licit and illicit means but the reasons for Putin to invade a neighbor are very different from the reasons for the Soviet Union to invade a neighbor.
assurance sake. I just finished a book on Putin; it reinforced the notion that his primary drives are (1) protect his power (2) increase his wealth (3) grow his cult of personality. Rolling on Poland does none of these. Acting like he's got the balls to roll on Poland? Does (1) and (3).
The Man Without a Face. Gessen's principal hypothesis is that the "failed" coup against Gorbachev that led to the rise of Yeltsin actually led to the KGB effectively taking over the country and Putin taking over the KGB. Why Putin? Because nobody knew who he was so nobody had any expectations of him. Unmentioned in the article, however, is the body blow Russia took by losing the Near Abroad, the massive die-off and emigration wave caused by the transition and the brain drain experienced ever since. Russia is a much smaller concern than the USSR and Putin has no way to make it bigger. Crimea is a drain, not a boost, and while the USSR fought skirmishes to maintain its foreign colonies, Russia fights skirmishes to maintain its internal structure. The USSR had 37 tank divisions. Russia has three. Clearly it takes more than tanks... but it takes tanks.