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Fifteen days ago I bought 70 shares of NO in Will national polling give Gary Johnson at least 8% in a 4-way race on August 31? I paid an average of 25¢ for the shares and could sell them now for about 90¢ each, as the authority puts his numbers at 7.8%. I was encouraged by superforecaster Bryan Caplan who predicts that Johnson will win no more than 5% of the popular vote. Caplan says his technique is to 'Step back, calm down, look at the numbers, and target thinkers who say, "This time it's different."'