No, because my problem is with the polls. Polls early in races always show a tighter race than what will inevitably happen. At this point in 2012 I think Romney "held" a slight lead, but Obama's reelection was never in doubt for a moment. Why? Because Romney was out of touch and had a difficult time speaking to anyone who made less than $1,000,000 per year. Trump is so far beyond what constitutes a reasonable man that once Clinton's media machine starts in on him, he will crash and burn so hard that he might actually bow out of the race before election day. You think 47% was bad? Binders full of women was bad? Trump can't be that kind and decent on his best day.

I think he's in danger of losing states like GA, LA, AL, MO, and anywhere else there are large but apathetic African American populations. I wouldn't at all be surprised if he lost TX, to be honest (assuming that Dems can register and convince to cast ballots large numbers of Latinos).

So, no, 538 isn't impressing me. And they've been wrong about Trump (in the opposite direction) for 12 months now. Trump is already dead in the water.