It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. On the one hand, it looks like the Bolt makes some compromises, especially on charging. On the other hand, Tesla isn't as experienced in manufacturing as Chevrolet, nor do they have as much of a cushion in case things go wrong. I imagine it wouldn't take more than one or two major recalls on the Model 3 to land Tesla into financially tough territory.
...sorry, got distracted by that McLaren video playing on the right, which shows about how much interest I have in 4-door electric economy cars. THAT SAID Tesla has an edge in that they don't have to turn a profit. Tesla subsidizes your purchase of their cars by $4000 each which is the sort of thing you can afford to do when you're in that halo of market penetration awesomeness and none of your shareholders expect you to make money. GM, on the other hand, gets hammered whenever they don't produce a dividend. Tesla also has an edge in that they don't have to stick to their guns. They jacked up the price on the Roadster and the S between taking orders and delivering and because they've got the halo, people either pay it or sell their places in line. Ain't nobody getting in line for this thing. Finally, Tesla has an edge in that they aren't having to be a car company. they get to be a bespoke gadget company that swoops in with white gloves and fixes things without you really knowing what's wrong, whereas Chevy has a whole dealer network full of cranky people who want to know why their electric car doesn't have the range they were promised even though they spent $3k more than if they'd just bought a Prius like their mother told them to. It really isn't going to come down to which is a better car - the Model 3 has to be, hands down. It'll come down to what sort of excesses the market will permit of Elon Musk because he's Elon Musk. I just wish they weren't all so forgettably ugly. I mean, even the wholly imaginative renderings of the upcoming roadster are boring. THIS IS YOUR MIATA ON PROZAC
Tesla's greatest marking victory is convincing people this is true. There are many worthy discussions on maintenance and fuel costs, but comparing the $35k base model price for the Model 3: Ford's top end car is the Taurus starting at $27k. The only model higher than $35k is the Expedition. One could buy two Fiestas or two Focuses for $35k. Mazda's entire line is less than $35k (though they don't currently show a price for the CX-9, their SUVan). One could buy two Mazda 3s for $35k. Subaru's entire line maxes out at $26.5k for a WRX or Crosstrek hybrid. Two Imprezas would run $36.5k. Honda's entire line is also below $35k. Two Fits would run less than $32k. Toyota finally gets into the $35k range with the Avalon... oh this is the hybrid, for $36k. The gas one is their top-of-the-line car for $32.5k. The Prius C starts at $20k, or one could get two Yarises or two Corollas for $35k. I think I'm looking in the wrong place. BMW starts around $33k for a 2 or 3 series. A Mercedes C class starts at $39k. Cadillac starts at $33k for the ATS sedan. Audi starts at $31k with the A3. Lexus starts at $37k with the IS. Tesla is still catering to a luxury crowd. It's still people who want to impress their neighbors. With a BMW comparison, they've moved down from where a 7 series would impress people to where a 3 series does. Around me, "normal" ranges from about a base model Honda Civic up to a nicely equipped Accord.This is their Tesla for normal people
I'm on my phone and about to head into work, so I'll have to keep this short. Tesla is selling in the luxury price range, because their cars are more expensive to manufacture. This is because of both the technology of the car as well as volume. They don't actually compare to luxury vehicles. I have sat in a Model S. I've also ridden shotgun in Mercedes, Jaguars, and Lexuses. Teslas are nicer than Civics for example, but they're not Mercedes nice. Also, the $35,000 is normal people price and seems quite reasonable. The Chevy Bolt will sell for near similar price and both the Nissan Leaf and the Ford Focus Electric scratch around $30,000 as well. Tesla is compared to other luxury cars because of their price point. That doesn't mean they're actually luxury cars though. You can get Camaros and Mustangs for $40,000 easily. That doesn't actually make them luxury cars either.
The $7500 federal subsidy is currently limited to 200,000 cars from any one manufacturer, and Wired speculates Tesla will be halfway there by the end of 2016 and closing in on the cap by the time Model 3s start to roll out.
They may be banking on the subsidies but many will be very disappointed. Or they'll be in a position where they could have afforded a series 3 anyway. Subsidies come and go. The solar power industry is going through this now.
Man, that Miatta on Prozac is actually a pretty damn good looking buggy imo. I see a lot of these in town. My neighbor has one. It's a nice ride. He loves it. Did his research too. As for sustainability, I just bought my first bike since I was 14.
Ha I agree. You can get them leased for about 300 /mo but they are still pasticy and shitty inside. Idk why anyone would want one. My coworker go a killer lease deal on his leave (less than 200 a month) and at $4 gas that made sense but other than that electric cars still got a ways to go.
Tesla is the Apple of the car world. Sticking with my Apple analogy, I think it depends whether the Model 3 is Tesla's MacBook or iPod. If they're still selling to a niche crowd, that crowd will weather a few bumps along the way. What's Tesla's typical schedule, something like 12-24 month delays when rolling out the Model X? Things like that haven't hurt the brand. If they are trying to push into mainstream crowds, they'll have to come through and can't risk major problems. The other thing is what other car companies do. I have to imagine Ford has a design for a Focus with a 200 mile range. There are pros and cons here. On the one hand, it makes it harder for a niche manufacturer to stand out. On the other, it validates the electric car model and draws attention to Tesla. I'm not really an electric car enthusiast, but working in the electric power industry, if this stuff picks up it'll be a decade or so of chaos (in a good way (for me)).I imagine it wouldn't take more than one or two major recalls on the Model 3 to land Tesla into financially tough territory.
The Model 3 will be their Bondi Blue iMac, for better or worse. This is their Tesla for normal people, much like the iMac G3 was Apple's return to marginal utility for the common college student and a turn away from TiBooks and Quadras. If Tesla can sell their reserved orders without shitting the bed they'll be the ones to follow. If, however, they don't deliver substantially on time within about 30% of what they've promised, they're going to have a real hard time with a follow-up. Musk has made no bones about the fact that luxury cars are where you start because rich people will put up with a lot of bullshit to impress their neighbors. insomniasexx won't, and she's 200,000 strong.
I think the first 100k people (the ones who got in line at midnight) will put up with a bit of a wait. They are excited and fan boys and know what they are getting into and expect some waiting. Elon himself is claiming 2017 but every regular person is saying 2018 / 2 years. So that's good because we know he has an issue meeting timelines. But if Q2 2018 comes and goes and they're barely being delivered, people are going to be pissed, and rightly so. Additionally, for the most part, people buying 100k cars have the means to have another car, have a lease for a year, etc. I also don't know how many committed 100% to the Tesla in 2014 or 2015. I know a lot of folks bought it as a second or third car (for families) and it happened to become their favorite and daily driver. I, and others, don't have this luxury. Another difference between the people buying these cars are the Model S and X are mostly being bought by upper-middle-class homeowners. In a way, me reserving a Tesla means I have to get a house.. or decide were going to buy into this building or find another one that has electric car chargers. We have 3 chargers in our parking lot. I know they are free for people who pay for parking (it's mixed valet / paid parking / resident parking). I don't know if it's extra if you use it every night. I also know that LADWP installed them with a few others in DTLA (along with ones in their own lot) to encourage more electric vehicles on the road. I don't know how many other apartment complexes in the 1k-3k/month range have EV chargers. I'm assuming that in 2 years I will (1) have 35k to spend on a car, (2) be renting or have a downpayment on a house (preferably with a yard). Those are two pretty big and ambitious, though not completely out of reach, assumptions. And a think a lot of people are in this same boat. I saw another tweet that was like: "Why did I reserve? Because in 2 years I'll either have a kid or money or, hopefully, both." There are a lot of people like me and random tweeter who are just starting to make real money, just starting to look to purchase our first "real" car (meaning, a car that you can be proud of, not a hand-me-down or whatever $2k clunker you could afford), just starting to think about the future and "settling down", and Elon Musk gives us a car at a very reasonable price that is exciting, new, electric, and amazing. Yup. Let's do that. No brainer. Then, there are people like my mother who even though they could probably figure out a way to afford a Model S, refuses to spend that type of money on a car. She's owned exactly 3 cars in my life: a something, a honda minivan (1994), and her suburu outback (2005). None of those were 30k. She's been looking at new cars for at least 4 years now but there is nothing on the market that strikes her fancy enough to actually convince her to go thru the hassle of buying. Again, this car delivers what she wants and the fact she literally got to sit on the couch on her fucking iPhone to reserve one is a huge component of this. It's a no brainer. Now, let's imagine for a moment that the Telsa 3 didn't exist. What would I do? I would probably lease a cheap-as-fuck car that would last me a few years until I could afford a real car. Then I would buy a real car. But I refuse to spend 35k what's currently around (I assume this isn't going to change much in 3-4 years), so I would probably end up get a 3-4 year old, single owner car with <50k miles on it. Probably a certified lease or something. Aiming for sticker of 20k, negotiate to 16-18k. And it would take a big thing (ie: my current car dies, my lease is up, etc) In order to get me to even look and test-drive cars because it's a fucking pain in the ass. Since there is no car that will reasonably excite me as much as Tesla has, the price is going to have to go way down. The problem with the Volt/Bolt isn't that it's electric, and the problem with the Volt/Bolt isn't fixed because it's electric. It's that it's the same fucking car Chevy has been delivering for 60 years but electric, some "MyLink infotainment system" features, and and a 35k price range. (PS: The fact that they are touting a "MyLink infotainment system" alone shows you how out of touch they are with my generation.) The Bolt looks more like a Vibe or a VW Golf than anything Chevy, actually. Regardless, it's stupid. Electric cars are cool and provide benefits, but not 15k worth of benefits. I would NOT buy a volt/bolt @ 35k. Period. End of conversation. I would rather drive a truck that gets 10mpg for 20k. Seriously. The Bolt has an even bigger issue: it looks like an electric car. For the love of christ, the reason people bought up the Lexus SUV hybrid and Ford hybrids in droves was because it didn't SHOW OFF that it was a hybrid like the Prius. Stop making electric cars look like dumb fucking toasters. BMW is the worst offender, BTW. That is a 12 year old boys idea of "cool." Tesla on the other hand has delivered a stunning looking car, with all the latest tech, that rethinks what cars are, with cool novelties like handles that slide in and out and a 21" touchscreen, that you can buy without going on a 4 year mission, that excites people, and all at 35k. My friend who has a 2014 Model S described the first time he sat in his Tesla like this: "It was like the first time I used my iPhone. It was pretty and new and shiny and all that...but then it just works. There are tiny little things that just work that I never would complain about if they weren't there, but together it makes the car so much more than any other car I've ever owned. Other companies should be scared. Scared of how you buy these cars. Scared of the fanboys. Scared of everything that Tesla's represents. Scared that every generation is into this car. Scared of people realizing that every car that's been around forever is like every flip phone ever created. You can bedazzle it and make it gold or throw a Lexus sticker on it, but the iPhone still blows it away. If nothing else, I hope that Musk takes a similarly ridiculous that picture so that it can be referenced in 20 years. I vote for one of him in a turtleneck in the frunk.
Well, the thing is, unless I'm horribly mistaken, the 3 is their attempt to get into the mainstream market. Price point and all. Part of the problem with cars, as compared to MP3 players and computers, is that they're a much bigger investment. That means, quality issues and recalls have a greater emotional impact on consumers. Plus, with electronic devices, mandatory recalls aren't a thing. Cars on the other hand, are. If the NHTSA says a car needs to be recalled for safety issues, there's no way around it. What's your thought on the batteries that they use? Isn't lithium both rare as well as ecologically expensive to mine and refine? Are there better options out there?If they're still selling to a niche crowd, that crowd will weather a few bumps along the way.
I'm not really an electric car enthusiast, but working in the electric power industry, if this stuff picks up it'll be a decade or so of chaos (in a good way (for me)).
For a car, there is no better option than lithium ion. I should say, no better option in real life. There will be future advancements, but no other battery can touch lithium ion's energy density. There are certainly tradeoffs on the environment. There's little that's kind about oil extraction and refining, and in comparison electric is probably better. On the utility side, there are many options. Size is no longer the limiter. I've sat through a couple battery presentations, and the technology depends on the use. Lithium is a thing in that world, but so are NiCd, sodium sulfur and even lead acid. A lot of neat things can happen on the grid with batteries, but mostly it isn't economical to do them today. It might be in the future, maybe even the not-too-distant future.
Electric car batteries are 100% beholden to cell phone batteries. Electric car technology went nowhere for 20 years until all of a sudden we all started carrying these little computers with us everywhere we went. The fact that battery life hasn't really gone anywhere in cell phones lately is a portent for what's going to happen with electric cars. Tesla is building its Superchargers about 115-120 miles apart, which means they're shooting for a sweet spot of that plus safety factor. They might have an ideal range of 200 miles on the Model 3 but they also aren't expecting that to go up between now and then. What it comes down to (always has, always will, forever and ever amen) is a balance between cargo capacity and range. We were shooting for holy-grail range of 150 miles back in '94. As soon as the tech gets you there, you start focusing on other stuff because every increase in efficiency is an increase in cargo capacity, not range.