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comment by b_b
b_b  ·  1643 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Oil Wager Complete

In the next ten years, I think the far more interesting question with oil will be demand and not supply. These past several years have shown that supply isn't remotely becoming an issue in the near or medium term. What will happen to demand, however, if wind and solar keep falling in price? One would think that oil will fall as alternative energies also fall, as many types of fuel are at least somewhat fungible. I've taken to not believing any predictions about oil prices however, because the only thing they all seem to have in common is their incorrectness. Turns out no one can predict the future. Who knew?





WanderingEng  ·  1643 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    What will happen to demand, however, if wind and solar keep falling in price?

I think batteries are the more important piece here. If battery prices drop an order of magnitude, oil use for transportation will see a long, slow death as more and more vehicles move to electric. Very little oil is used in electric generation. One of oil's key benefits is its energy density. While batteries aren't close to matching that density, if they're cheap enough, it won't matter.