- It's about as hard for a 20-something worker to find a job today as it was in 1986. The economy is growing at a slightly slower pace, but not by much. And yet young workers today are significantly more pessimistic about the possibility of success in America than their counterparts were in 1986, according to a new Fusion 2016 Issues poll reported in conjunction with the Washington Post — a shift that appears to reflect lingering damage from the Great Recession and more than a decade of wage stagnation for typical workers.
That rise in pessimism among millennials is concentrated among white people. It is most pronounced among whites who did not earn a college degree.
Or 2008, or 2004, or 2001, or 1996, or 1990, or 1988 ... ... but not, if you actually look at the chart, in 1986, when unemployment never went below 6.3%. Today (as of October, anyway) it is 5.3%, historically pretty good for this segment. This counts as news, apparently, but whining youngsters are not a novelty. Ask them if any would be willing to go back and live in 1986 for more than the two minutes it would take to realize that their smartphones no longer work. Why are they so cranky? It may be related to the fact that fewer consider merely owning a home something to dream of. No, "They are more likely to say that starting a business was part of the dream." That's great, but by my count there are about 13 million businesses in the country and over 100 million homes. Presumably most of the business owners have a mortgage. So: young people have it better than ever, affording them leisure to dream greater dreams than ever before, and still maintain their eternal reputation as spoiled brats.It's about as hard for a 20-something worker to find a job today as it was in 1986.
[The] share of young Americans overall who said the American Dream "is not really alive" grew sharply
I agree with your first part, but I think that's the point. The point is, despite the fact that things are relatively well, young americans are not thinking the american dream is really a thing. Well, they certainly appear to be, as the stats in 1986 had a larger number saying the american dream was a thing. The fuck sort of point is this? Of course nobody wants to go back 20 years. Of course 2015 is better than 1980. That's not significant. What is significant is relative wealth, it's preception of decency. The number of jobs is down. The number of part time jobs is up. Student debt is rapidly surpassing all other forms as more and more people get college degrees, and now college degrees are not looking to get people nearly the money one got in the past. Young people have these ideas, not because they are spoiled brats, but because of what are almost certainly legitamate reason. Go ahead and dismiss it, say they are a bunch of spoiled brats, but is that really the most likely situation? You state one statistic, unemployment. Not even that, it's TOTAL unemployment, of which you have no idea what it says about young people. The american dream isn't "having a job".This counts as news, apparently, but whining youngsters are not a novelty
Ask them if any would be willing to go back and live in 1986 for more than the two minutes it would take to realize that their smartphones no longer work.
It is significant to me if objective measures of well-being have improved over time. I don't worry so much about perceptions, I think people tend to find reasons to complain in any situation. Can you provide evidence for this? There is a lot of wiggle room with definitions, but I find about 90 million jobs in 1980 and 140 million jobs in 2015, an increase of over 50% (while the population increased about 40%). College education is more common than it used to be (surely not a bad thing?) and this means that a college degree commands less attention than it used to. I am not sure if a comparably-educated person earns less than before. Young people today have legitimate complaints, including some you mention, and I shouldn't casually dismiss them. Young people a century ago had legitimate complaints as well. I think the fact that few people would consider living at any point in the past is good evidence of progress.Of course 2015 is better than 1980. That's not significant.
The number of jobs is down.
I phrased that very incorrectly. The number of jobs is not down. The number of full time jobs, in a ratio to the number of part time ones, are down. http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Full-Time-vs-Part-Time-Employment.phpCan you provide evidence for this?
Okay. If we want to see bad news, we might assume that lots of people want to work full time but can't find full time jobs. If we want to see good news, we might assume that people are choosing to work less and spend more time relaxing. If we want to see reality as it is, we might decide that we don't have enough information to say that this is good or bad. The article mentions that the ratio of part-time workers has been growing since data collection began in 1968, when 13.5% of workers were part-time. It's hard to say what the ideal ratio might be, if there is one. The article mentions the the pre-recession percentage (without saying why that's a good target) and goes on to pick the very minimum value of 16.6% in the depicted range, saying we are "just above halfway there." The same chart shows that if you instead pick the maximum pre-recession value, we are just about exactly there. There are more 2007-present charts, curiously almost identical, then one depicting a "surge in part-time employment" during the last recession, the surge being exaggerated in two ways: 1) the chart index is not zero 2) the graph does not depict part-time employment, rather the ratio of part time employed, concealing the fact that the loss of full time positions caused most of the change in the ratio. Here's a quiz: in this multi-year chart of part-time job count, can you find the "surge"? That image comes from a FRED chart of all full-time and part-time data. I suggest (here and always) choosing the maximum available range of data, and also putting both categories on the same axis (by default they are scaled differently, exaggerating part-time counts). Part time work shows, in my view, quite stable and slow growth, with a little blip in January 1994 (when data collection methods changed) and a little growth during the recession, level since then, giving a value today about what we would have seen if the slow growth of earlier decades had continued uninterrupted. It's also worth asking why people are working part-time. The article provides a link to BLS, and with a few clicks one can find a table showing reasons for working below 35 hours. Some reasons given are: 17% In school or training 14% Family or personal obligations (other than child-care problems, which contribute 3%) 12% Slack work or business conditions 10% Vacation or personal day 7% Could only find part-time work It turns out that more people are counted as part-time workers because they are on vacation than because they couldn't find the full-time job they wanted. Overall, 79% of part-time workers cite non-economic reasons for their work hours.The number of full time jobs, in a ratio to the number of part time ones, are down.
Question on those stats: are those just "people who work less than 35 hours" or is that "people with jobs with fewer than 35 hours?" If there were a lack of full time jobs, most will take two part time jobs, and work "full time" despite not having a full time job. Outside of that I really do like this post, I hadn't seen this info before.
I suspect that it means people who work a total of 35 hours or less per week, but I haven't been able to find a copy of the Current Population Survey to confirm. The answer might be buried somewhere in the technical documentation. I found this conversation interesting as well; I have heard the claim that part-time jobs replaced full-time jobs during the recent downturn, but never looked into it.are those just "people who work less than 35 hours"
One thing I never see in these is that when you live in the gutter, the only way to look is up. the kids in the middle look up and realize that door is closing in on them, and they look down and don't like what they see. People are not stupid.