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comment by kleinbl00
kleinbl00  ·  3179 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Who Got What They Wanted– Understanding the Iran Nuclear Deal

The US desires were completely untenable. Saudi Arabia hit the Hubbert Peak in 2007. Oil is going away. Iran wants the ability to pursue energy independence while also counter-balancing Israel, which tends to act unilaterally.

People think the US has been enemies with Iran since 1979. It's more accurate to say that Iran and the USA have been engaged in a cold war in the middle east. Israel and Pakistan (and formerly Iraq) have been our proxies, while Iran has had Hamas and the PLO. The deal basically daylights the clandestine combat between the two countries, thereby deprecating proxy warfare and normalizing relations.

Part of the reason we didn't get all we asked for is we're in a losing position. The Sunnis are going batshit all over South Asia while the Shia are consolidating power and looking reasonable. The Iranian regime is a zealous and reactionary theocracy but the Iranian people are progressive and young. It's exactly the sort of situation where anyone clever would export a hundred billion dollars worth of Ford, McDonald's and Taylor Swift and let the millenials sort it out. Simply and frankly put, Iran is missing a generation from the Iran/Iraq war and the millenials aren't aligning with the Ayatollahs.

Iran, post-fundamentalism, is going to be the driving cultural influence for the entire Middle East. We can fight that or we can be friends with it. Being friends with it is a hell of a lot easier, especially when you consider that Iran/Persia hasn't launched a war of aggression since the Sassanid Empire.





arguewithatree  ·  3179 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I think the Iran deal is one of the best things to come out of the international sphere as of late. My office is pretty depressing, but being able to see something so positive come out of my building is amazing. Iran was a central hub of culture in the Middle East/South Asia pre-Revolution and, with the proper space to grow, I think has the potential to reclaim that. I'm also hoping that Netanyahu blows a gasket and continues to make himself look like an ass over it. Seeing massive, much needed cultural/political reform come to Israel would help iron out a lot of rustled feathers.

(this post does not reflect the view of the U.S. government)

kleinbl00  ·  3179 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Okay now you got me curious as to your office.

arguewithatree  ·  3179 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I work on Af/Pak issues. It's depressing. ETA : well it has become more depressing. It was exciting when I first got there because the elections had just happened and I was all afloat with idealism.

kleinbl00  ·  3179 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Oh god. Yeah, I can't imagine how it couldn't be. So are you one of those people spreading mind control drugs through vaccination?

arguewithatree  ·  3179 days ago  ·  link  ·  

SHHHH....... Maybe

user-inactivated  ·  3179 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Same thing in Cuba. The middle generation left for the US and the young people want Nike's and Rock N Roll. This is why opening up trade with Cuba is going to be a net win for everyone over the next 10 years or so.