Please reply this way:
1. Dem Nominee:
Later, after the election we can return here and see who's prediction was most accurate. We are VERY early on so no worries if you are way off base. The winner (if there is a clear winner) will receive a trophy.
1. Dem Nominee: Biden
2. President: Trump
I bought eight shares of Biden at 19¢ in January 2019; he is now trading at 25¢. It's the safe bet: he's been on the bumper stickers and in the White House, he's the conventional "electable" candidate for the anyone-but-Trump emergency.
Warren is trading at 33¢ and a good bet, but I don't see what she brings for the average voter that the last candidate didn't have, other than not being a Clinton.
Reelection is typical in recent elections.
GHWB lost while "the economy was in recession"; Carter lost during "a worsening economy at home marked by high unemployment and inflation"; Ford was "saddled with a poor economy."
Now everyone is calling for a recession, but without naming a timeline. If current trends continue another year, reelection seems likely.