Caught red-handed? As expected, the U.S. and most of its Gulf allies on Friday sought to pin the blame for Thursday’s attacks on two oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman on Iran. And, as expected, Tehran denied any involvement, effectively claiming the incident was actually a false flag attack. But the U.S. Central Command released two curious bits of evidence making its case. The first was a photo taken around midday from aboard the USS Bainbridge showing what the Navy said was an unexploded limpet mine attached to one of the tankers at roughly the same height of the hole caused by Thursday’s explosion. The second was grainy footage taken by a U.S. surveillance plane later in the afternoon of what the Pentagon said was a crew aboard an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Gashti-class patrol boat removing the unexploded mine. The photo and video raise more questions than they answer, and even if the U.S. interpretation is accurate, it doesn’t prove that Iran is responsible for the attacks. (Theoretically, Iran would have reason to want to do its own analysis on the object.) The owner of the ship, meanwhile, dismissed the limpet mine theory and said the crew saw “flying objects” right before the explosions.” Nonetheless, it's reasonable to suspect Iranian involvement on some level. Tehran has well-developed asymmetric maritime capabilities and at least some plausible motives to carry out such an attack – e.g. making clear that sanctions have backed it into a corner and/or boosting oil prices to help offset lost revenue. On the other hand, the attacks risk hardening international sentiment against Iran and giving its hostile neighbors a reason to fight at a time when Tehran can’t afford a conflict. Bottom line: It could be Tehran. It could be a rogue, hardline Iranian faction. (Unconfirmed reports emerged this week of the arrest of several IRGC commanders.) It could be anti-Iran elements from elsewhere in the region seeking to force a reluctant U.S. into war. No theory fits neatly with all the available facts and what we see as each side’s interests. But then, creating confusion was probably a core goal of the attacks. What matters most at this point is how each side seeks to use the fog of quasi-war to its advantage.