It’s a Swedish meme, but I guess the point comes across anyway.
"The Liberals are very divided about support for a Social Democratic government as it is, and [the deal] is going to cause a big problem for the party leader. I think a decision to go all the way into the government would be a step too far for that party," explained political scientist Nicholas Aylott to The Local earlier on Friday.
"For the Centre, Annie Lööf some years ago did promise to eat one of her shoes rather than serve in a government under Stefan Löfven. I think going into a government under Löfven would just be too difficult given the promises she's made."
My predictions: Liberal leader Jan Björklund will resign or face a vote of confidence at the next party convention, a new Conservative block will begin to take shape, the Greens will once again be ignored in every case that matters, the Left Party will be able to throw at least one wrench into the machinery to get a small concession through (that the Social democrats will take credit for anyway), the big unions will grumble but keep pumping money into the Social democrats, the housing crisis will keep growing, money spent on welfare will keep getting siphoned off to off-shore tax havens, next election everyone tries to blame each other/take credit for everything bad/good the last 4 years, and either the Liberals or the Greens will get voted out of parliament.
The next four years there will be a minimum of one budget crisis, one major IT security scandal in a government agency each year, and seven (EDIT: six more to go, I might have low-balled this one too much) low-level Sweden Democrats kicked out of/leave the party for racist remarks and/or hate speech (anyone that matters to the leadership is forgiven).
But hey, finally the Swedish media can get back to putting the latest Trump tweet on their front page!
Wrench: thrown. Not surprising at all, since the deal contained a huge "fuck you" that explicitly states that the Left Party will be excluded from political influence for the next four years, while they still need their votes (or rather, to abstain from using them) to pass the deal in parliament. Also, the contents of the deal itself is a hard pill to swallow for the Left: reduced collective bargaining rights, market rates for renters and tax cuts for home owners, tripled tax deduction for maid services, reduced public-access rights to the coast and forests etc. My hunch is that the Social Democrats might have went along with this expecting the Left to force the liberals to re-negotiate for the fourth and final vote, but man, it's a high-stakes game they're playing.