That’s partly because, in each case, there’s about a 1-in-5 chance that the less likely outcome will happen: That Republicans will retain the House or that Democrats will win the Senate. (His 40 percent calculation takes into consideration that the House and Senate probabilities are not independent from each other; there’s almost no chance that Democrats will win the Senate but not the House.)

Turnout wins for the Dems. Get out and vote.


I'm just hoping that they learned their lesson from 2016. They certainly seemed to here in Virginia, but whether that's made its way higher up in the national party remains to be seen. I will say that I haven't seen enough "get out and vote" ads from the Democratic Congressional candidate for my district as I would like. Hopefully her opponent's remarkably poor showing at the debate will help (when the audiance begins to laugh at your sound bites, you're in trouble).

posted by francopoli: 121 days ago