Music while you read
El Ten Eleven - My Only Swerving: Youtube, Spotify
Pick the Statistic You Want to Be - Nautilus
“So I calculated that the standard reference statistic being used of a one in a thousand risk was probably much lower for us,” Barnaby said. “By changing or eliminating certain risk factors, you can shift the risk curve—and effectively change your chances, or luck.”
“We can’t remove all risks, and life is always about tradeoffs,” Barnaby said. “What’s important is that you understand the reality of the risks you’re taking.”
Mark Twain popularized the expression “lies, damned lies, and statistics,” and it’s very easy to get swayed by experts tossing around numbers—or encouraging you to misinterpret them.
When I first heard the story of the Virginia Lottery, my thought was Yikes! The syndicate got only 5 million of the 7 million—they could still lose! Barnaby said his thought was—Five out of seven—great odds! That’s the funny thing about statistics and odds—they are just numbers, and we give them our own emotional overlay.
Around the way
"Is curing patients a sustainable business model?" Goldman Sachs analysts ask - Ars Technica
courtesy of bfv, with hubski thread here
"The potential to deliver 'one shot cures' is one of the most attractive aspects of gene therapy, genetically engineered cell therapy, and gene editing. However, such treatments offer a very different outlook with regard to recurring revenue versus chronic therapies... While this proposition carries tremendous value for patients and society, it could represent a challenge for genome medicine developers looking for sustained cash flow."
Ars reached out to Goldman Sachs, which confirmed the content of the report but declined to comment.
Around the bend
“The Clock Is Ticking”: Inside the Worst U.S. Maritime Disaster in Decades - Vanity Fair
courtesy of ButterflyEffect, with a hubski thread here
At 4:46 P.M., Randolph and Davis returned to allow Schultz and Hamm to go to dinner. The sat-C printer delivered the latest weather, and Randolph took it to the chart table and began to plot it out. This was information from the National Hurricane Center only a few minutes old, and although it continued to contain forecasting errors, it got the current location of the eye about right. She said, “So at two in the morning . . .”
Davis said, “What?”
“ . . . it should be right here.” She indicated a position just outside of San Salvador Island. “Let’s see where we will be.” She did some calculations and began to chuckle. “We’re going to be right there with it. Looks like the storm is coming right for us.” She laughed in disbelief. “Ahhh, you gotta be kidding me.”
Davis said, “We’re going to get our ass ripped.”
Randolph was a Mainer. Salt of the earth. She said, “We’re going to go right through the fucking eye.”
Around the corner
The Mobster Who Bought His Son a Hockey Team - The Atlantic
As AJ explained it to me: “It happened at dinner. My father said, out of nowhere, ‘If I ever buy a hockey team, you’re going to run it.’ I was like, ‘Yeah, sure.’ Then, two days later, he said, ‘Okay, I bought the team.’ ”
James Comey has a story to tell. It's very persuasive. - The New York Times
Caption: HISTORIANS: We've decided to trim the past down to make things more manageable. Using BCE/CE, would you rather we lose the odd-numbered or even-numbered years?
XKCD 1979: History