I'm only on chapter two right now, but so far everything is sunshine and roses.

    Middle-class markets are likely to erode. Many consumer-facing businesses design and market goods based on a three-tier household model, including a small upper-income tier, a small lower-income tier and a broad middle-income tier. Pressure on the middle class may favor a primarily two-tier structure, with upper-income households representing roughly 20% and lower-income households making up the remaining 80%.

Oh boy.

    Our analysis suggests that the pace of labor force displacement in the coming decade could be two to three times as fast as during other big transformational periods of labor automation in modern history (see Figure 27). In trying to estimate the coming dislocation, we looked at the peak movement from agriculture to industry and the movement out of manufacturing into services.



Yeah I just had this pointed out to me this morning. Need to crank through it. For comparison's sake, McKinsey's similar study and 1966's Technology and the American Economy.

I'm a little doubtful as to Bain's conclusions. Here's the McKinsey:

    In the 1960s, US President Lyndon Johnson empaneled a “National Commission on Technology, Automation, and Economic Progress.” Among its conclusions was “the basic fact that technology destroys jobs, but not work.”

McKinsey argued that the key was retraining, and a lot of it. It's possible that the Bain presumes there will be none in which case, yeah, it's gonna be shitty.

posted by keifermiller: 5 days ago