I believe that Oriol Vinyals (a current Deepmind researcher and a top-ranked Starcraft player in his own right) is right and most of the top-ranked Starcraft players are dead wrong, and Deepmind shall beat world-class Starcraft players in 3-4 years. Not immediately, but not far off either. And Yann LeCun and other AI executives will say "oh that's just a video game, not real life... ". But in fact, in terms of deep job loss and the military AI arms race, which are just narrow AI, there will already be enough startling advances which are not pretty at all, that in the next 10 years everyone will finally understand at a gut level that AI is REALLY dangerous and frightening, whatever they say now. And in the following 15 years after that, all hell is going to break away in the AGI sphere.

I don't know where it is going to be superior specifically -- I don't think anybody has that wisdom -- but I think it's likely that human beings are through, and true AGI, which is MASSIVELY better in every way than ordinary humans, including ways we cannot dream of today, that we don't even fathom, will chart the course for the next billion years. Human beings are history, but at least we can say we are the parents, however laughable in hindsight, of the next race of AGI, which will take it from here.


posted 2443 days ago