This has turned into a big curiosity for me. Essentially, on PredictIt one can place bets on political outcomes as defined by the website makers, like who will win the Presidency or what will a candidate's favorability rating be on a polling aggregate site on a certain day. There are a ton of different markets. You also don't have to wait for a market to resolve in order to make (or lose) money. For example, I sold all my shares in a market entitled "How many totally false statements will Trump make in August?" yesterday though the market won't resolve until September 9th (totally false statements are any "Pant's on Fire lies" according to Politifact's Truth-O-Meter). It's actually an incredible state of reality: there are thousands of people trying to manipulate one another into a profit in a zero-sum market based on how many demonstrable and provable lies a major-party candidate for Presidency of the United States will say in a month. And I fucking killed it.
I was never really taken in by sports betting or even card games. But this is fascinating stuff for me. I've found myself digging into the numbers behind campaign finance disclosures and listening more critically to political news. It's also exposed me to some fascinating, arrogant, and hilarious people since the comments section of this site is one of most cynical and whip-smart group of folks I know on the internet. (You guys are whip-smart, too, just not as cynical.) I'm posting this here to see if anyone wants to discuss strategy or share market secrets. If you have a gambling problem, please don't take this as a suggestion. Also, beware: this stuff is seriously addicting, especially if you start winning.
PredictIt has become a habit for me since accidentally discovering their local headquarters during a visit with Creativity.
Philosophically, I believe that making and measuring predictions is the best way we have to test our understanding of the world. But talk is cheap, and speculation is easy. Wagering is a crass mechanism for promoting careful thought, but better than nothing. The possibility of concrete gain encourages those with informed opinions to speak up, while the possibility of loss tends to dampen the enthusiasm and confidence of self-styled experts.
In practice, it's also a lot of fun.
A coupon code boosted my initial deposit of $35 to $50. A play on Gary Johnson's poll numbers was a close call but paid $52.20 (less 10% fee) after just 16 days.
I got out of my position in a North Korean H-Bomb test, netting 20 cents, so I could jump in on the Democratic Party winning the White House. I was disappointed that I couldn't buy shares in a Clinton win earlier at 66¢, but learned that PredictIt works around their self-imposed limits by creating lots of similar markets: "Who will win the election", "Which party will win", "Who will be elected VP", "Will the next president be a woman".
So I bought 80 shares of DEM.PREZPRTY16 at 72¢. These are now down three cents so I am thinking about increasing my stake. But I also bought enough of CPD1.CROOKED to ensure I will win ten bucks when Trump utters the words "Crooked Hillary" during the first debate. Who says politics can't be fun?