This was news to me - I have long assumed the IPCC has been way behind the curve in terms of what they are willing to indicate they both see happening and in terms of what should be done about it. I assumed Kyoto was a tame response to what must certainly be considered a pending Natural Disaster event of extreme proportion . . .

. . . But BIOperturbation . . .

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises, now in final form from the National Academy of Sciences, differs from previous studies by focusing both on abrupt climate changes and on abrupt climate impacts that have the potential to severely affect the interconnected physical climate system, natural systems, and human systems. Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change contends that the threat of tipping points is real and serious, and that focused action is needed to better anticipate, prepare, and seek to limit the unavoidable damages from inevitable surprises.

Abrupt Impacts of Climate Change: Anticipating Surprises can be purchased in book form, downloaded free in PDF format, or read online.

. . .

Mitigation -- emissions reduction -- and adaptive preparedness are both essential; neither can be shortchanged. Climate policy advocacy should treat as an integrated whole the need for continuous climate change monitoring, strong support for scientific research, ongoing scientifically based risk assessments, and what an earlier National Academy study termed 'iterative risk management' policy -- including both an expedited phase-out of fossil fuels and decarbonizing the energy system, and stepped up preparedness planning and action to develop climate-resilient communities. There is no good reason why all of this can't be accomplished in tandem. What we are learning from the science community about the threat of abrupt climate changes and abrupt impacts of climatic disruption should be taken as yet another warning that there is no reasonable alternative.

                 January 7, 2014