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mk  ·  1 day ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 16, 2020

We didn't want to commit to getting one unless we were sure, and were willing to wait if need be. It'd be a tough process for her if it ended up to be drawn out. I'm a believer in picking the puppy, and then getting emotionally attached. Next time, if there is one.

mk  ·  2 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 16, 2020

Yeah, I know.

He's made himself at home.

mk  ·  2 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 16, 2020

This is what happened at our home today.

His name is Winston. My daughter had no idea and was over the moon.

mk  ·  2 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Nine years

You are one of the quieter ones. Yet Hubski has consistently been better for your presence.

Happy Hubday!

mk  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Frogtima Buggy Project: Part III

It's a lot of fun.

mk  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: New Maps Show a transformed United States

Damn. Everyone is coming to Michigan.

mk  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Scientific American Endorses Joe Biden

Trump is a very unusual candidate in the extent to which he rejects science and lies about public health issues. Some presidents have been bad, but Trump is abysmal in this respect. I don't think it's the polarization as much as Donald Trump in particular. Of course, he is a product of the polarization.

mk  ·  3 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: I'm ashamed to admit that a heartfelt apology is needed, again.

I hope that you'll find yourself able to revisit, even if as a different account. We never are who we imagine ourselves to be, but the process is good. Godspeed.

You will be missed.

mk  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: PSA: We are in the midst of a Hubski experiment.

    I'm not sure what you are experiencing, but I just returned to Hubski after an absence and it does not seem to have significantly changed. It's still one of the best places for intelligent conversation in a spirit of kindness that I have come across on the web.

That's nice to hear, but I have noticed a general decline in the quality of interactions, and people being good to each other in threads. Oddly, that hasn't been the case in chat, and I have been putting some thought to that. This isn't just my opinion, mind you, a number of people have lamented to me in some form or other about an increase in emotional tenor, carelessness, and combativeness. I don't think our spirit of kindness is gone, but I do think we show less care in how we treat one another in threads. A lot of quality users have inactivated their accounts.

    I am not aware of other sites that facilitate mostly intelligent and respectful discussion like Hubski does. I have always thought the site mechanics are largely responsible for that. In all my years of wandering the internet, Hubski stands out as one of the few best places. I get that it's not free to run, but don't underestimate what you have here, and know that some of us would be quite sad to see it go.

I never expect or want Hubski to be a money-maker. I want Hubski to maintain a quality that brings value to intelligent, curious, creative, and thoughtful people. I'm not interested in the social web that thrives on influence, posturing, and insecurity, or a house of debate where participants aren't seeking to change their minds. I believe that few things are intellectually more satisfying than learning something that alters your thinking. I do agree that the mechanics have helped. Outright trolls usually have a short tenure here. However, I do think that what we currently have required an active team to prevent a slide into a place where the most emotional voices can prevail. Whether or not we can engineer for a place that doesn't require such a hands-on effort remains to be seen, IMO.

Sorry if I sounded like I was making a threat to ragequit. I have no plans to shut down Hubski. I am however, resolved to see if we can improve upon what we have, and I'm willing to rock the boat and risk upsetting users in that effort. If we can make a positive change, it will be worth the effort. Users are upset with the status quo, and good users have been quitting for some time. I owe it to them and myself to see if we can do better. I owe it to everyone.

mk  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Dawn of the topological age?

It's been a good while. Am I wrong to look at this as structural modes of similar conductance within periodic boundary conditions?

    Historians often label epochs of human history according to their material technologies—the bronze age, the iron age, and, most recently, the silicon age.

Materials scientists are the closest thing we have to deities. They wield the power of the divine, and make our world as economists, sociologists, artists, politicians, etc., vie for credit.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What Young, Healthy People Have to Fear From COVID-19

I agree. I was making the point that Caplan's behavior was rational for his personal health, but if generalized, not for public health.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What Young, Healthy People Have to Fear From COVID-19

How about in your house with a friend visiting?

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 9, 2020

I'm doing a 24 hour fast today. I was doing it once a month, but haven't since the pandemic started. I can tell that my body is out of practice.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What Young, Healthy People Have to Fear From COVID-19

    Can you give an example of this outside of voting?

Wearing a mask in low-risk environment in a pandemic.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What Young, Healthy People Have to Fear From COVID-19

    Above all, I am now happy to socialize in-person with friends. I am happy to let my children play with other kids. I am also willing to not only eat take-out food, but dine in restaurants.

That is his behavior, that if generalized, would have the effect of increasing risk for all.

    Isn't it more important that the response be "effective" rather than "swift and uniform"? Swift and uniform adherence to bad practices won't help.

In the case of a pandemic, the effective response is a a swift and uniform one.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 9, 2020

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What Young, Healthy People Have to Fear From COVID-19

I don't understand Caplan's thinking. If his behavior was generalized, even to healthy low-risk people, it would result in a significantly higher risk for him and vulnerable people. It's like the matter of voting. Your one vote is arguably not worth the effort, yet if everyone decides that, it has great consequence. Doing something for the public good often looks irrational on an individual basis.

It's that type of approach that led us to this situation where it is widespread in our country, but not in others that acted differently.

It seems common sense to me that you don't allow a virus to spread by reacting swiftly and uniformly, then deal with pockets. That would be a good quantitative risk driven approach.

    What might Socrates say, if Socrates were an economics professor?

Contrarianism is at most, half of dialectic thinking. :)

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

Definitely, the problem is cultural.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

Risk in untested (which are probably mild or asymptomatic) could also include long-term unknown complications as well as the risk of transmitting to someone else.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 9, 2020

Congrats on the painting. It's exciting how transformative paint can be. I painted our house several years ago, and it was no small task. Are you using a sprayer or brush/roller? I used a brush/roller, and I don't think I'll ever do that again. One side of it is two stories, and I am not a fan of heights. The peak was a sweaty-palm job.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

The model’s default assumes only 10% of positive cases are tested. That’s a big driver of these numbers. You could test this model with random spot testing.

It’s possible that 20% of the US has contracted it. If 6M cases have been reported, and only 10% are tested, then 60M have contracted it thus far. My guess us that it’s lower, like the 20% tested setting.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

I don’t think uhsguy means monetary value, but a numerical value in the risk equation.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Whistleblower details alleged politicization of intelligence at DHS

    In one example dating back to May, Murphy claims he was “instructed” by Wolf “to cease providing intelligence assessments on the threat of Russian interference in the United States, and instead start reporting on interference activities by China and Iran.”

Yeah, that's important.

It seems like almost an open secret that Trump has been laundering Russian money through DB for several years, and is now under Putin's influence.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

250k cases sounds steep. On perusal, the paper looks pretty thorough.

http://ftp.iza.org/dp13670.pdf

The governor is looney. But, the study isn't peer-reviewed. So they might both be wrong. Still, it doesn't take much sense not to have a motorcycle rally in a pandemic.

mk  ·  8 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool

Why is that?

mk  ·  9 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: September 9, 2020

It is my daughter’s second day of virtual school. I am sitting at the kitchen table, and she is at her desk. It’s interesting to watch her interact from this perspective. She is smiling a lot but saying little. She just said her name and waved her arms. I am trying to image what it must feel like for her. We took her first day of school picture in front of her desk. She’s in 3rd grade. I remember my first day of 3rd grade clearly because I had grey parachute pants and I was so excited to wear them. Parachute pants are awesome.

There has been a tremendous amount of parental stress around this school year. Personally, I haven’t been worried because my wife and I don’t have to leave the house for work. I really feel for parents that must juggle this and work, particularly those with multiple kids. From an educational perspective, if the school year did not happen, I don’t think it would be much of a big deal. Kids are resilient. We adults are the fragile ones.

We are going to head back to the UP of Michigan in just over a week. I am getting internet installed at the cottage. My second cousin will be there doing the same, so my daughter will have playmates on hand after the school day.

I just got my Uphold account activity. Someone donated 0.2 ETH to Hubski on 8/20. To Whom it May Concern, thank you. We also get about $10/mo worth of BAT from people using Brave and/or tipping. That makes a difference. https://hubski.com/donate

mk  ·  10 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: What Young, Healthy People Have to Fear From COVID-19

I'd say it's a waste of time. It will be a while before we know the long term health effects of COVID19 on young people. For that reason, it's irresponsible to speak conclusively about how safe or how dangerous it is for them, or whether or not it is a good idea (individually or from a social perspective) to be exposed.

I sent an email last week to someone whose brother had a massive stroke from COVID19 and is suffering from paralysis and aphasia. I believe he is younger than I am. By the data, he's recovered. There are aspects of this virus that are not very flu-like. It's not well-understood.

My grandfather had rheumatic fever as a child, and as a result, had a weakened heart that led to an early death. We do know that SARS-CoV-2 infects heart tissue as it is rich in ACE2. It's going to be a long while before we know if mild or asymptomatic cases have long term effects upon the heart, or other systems, for that matter.

It would be more responsible of the Atlantic to just say that there are unknown risks to getting COVID19, and for that reason, we might be cautious about the notion that young people needn't worry about it.

IMHO the Atlantic is not a standout in abysmal scientific reporting. We really ought to have PhD's with research backgrounds as scientific journalists.

From Amazon, the author Derek Thompson:

    graduated from Northwestern University, in 2008, with a triple major in journalism, political science, and legal studies. He hasn't done much with the latter two.
mk  ·  11 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 398th Weekly "Share Some Music You've Been Into Lately"

I loved this song as a kid.

mk  ·  11 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: 'Bad Optics' Or Something More? Moderna Executives' Stock Sales Raise Concerns

CMO sold everything? Probably not going to be a Moderna vaccine.