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am_Unition's comments
am_Unition  ·  5 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Plummeting insect numbers 'threaten collapse of nature’

It sounds like one end result is that we're going to accidentally hand some species monopolies by frequently fluctuating the local conditions in a way that only favors a few types of insects. My girlfriend told me just a few days ago she heard about a study that concluded we're likely to see cockroaches (and presumably other species that cohabitate with humans) enjoy a disproportionate advantage in their odds of preservation. Logically, there will be serious repercussions from the loss in biodiversity that ripple up the food chain, even if we preserve the total amount of biomass comprised by insects. And I don't think we're going to manage preserving biomass very well.

Most people seem to have a very poor intuition when it comes to grasping exactly how quickly the climate is changing on a global scale. Yes, it's been this warm before, but not when it was as relatively cold as it was only two or three hundred years ago. Typically, a similar variation of global temperature takes at least several tens of thousands of years to fully manifest.

But 'dem jobs, boi. We're going to create so many jobs to stay alive! Will the number of jobs created be comparable to the number of deaths? 'cuz then it was totally worth it.

rthomas6 Unstable and/or "developing" countries will take a disproportionately large hit. If you're on Hubski, the odds are that your offspring will fare well.

Devac  ·  5 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I'd also add that switching from cow/pig/chicken to insect farming is among the best things we could do for helping the environment, if only because it takes about 2000 times less fresh water to make a kilogram of edible cricket biomass vs a kilogram of pork whilst producing negligible amounts of ammonia or methane. It's not going to be an option once they go extinct.

am_Unition  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Fortnite

I wanna play Apex Legends. It's free on PC, you guys should check it out.

OftenBen  ·  11 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Why does everything have to be Battle Royale mode these days?

Foveaux  ·  11 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Aye - it turns me off faster now. Tried Fortnite, not for me. Got that Blackout demo on PS4, survived to the last 10 people on my first match by hiding in a bush and only coming out when the magical wall closed in, also not for me.

I guess devs see Fortnite's success and assume it's the BR format.

I kinda just figured it's cause it was bright, simple and free. Kids fuckin' love it.

rezzeJ  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Because who hasn't dreamed of battle royale Tetris?

OftenBen  ·  7 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I have so many questions.

am_Unition  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trip report - Monts Groulx

You should go to town if you've got anecdotes, we have almost no French/Quebecois representation here. Bait them!

The only time I've felt ostracized by the French is when I used one of their subways during rush hour with a massive duffel bag, on my way to the airport. To be fair, I took up too much space. Someone farted (big time), perhaps in protest, and I can respect that. The person I was with assured me that the French rip ass on public transport all of the time, but I dunno, maybe that same person was the perpetrator.

Devac  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Not really. The two truly remarkable ones (out of 15-20 so far, roughly estimating) were:

- A guy whom I presumed to be so offended by my pathetic level of French and attempts at using anything else that he just turned around on his feet in the middle of my sentence and walked away in a huff. Then he probably realised I'm the best around because he came back and acted as nothing happened. Perhaps the only time I felt like an NPC, still regret that I didn't say something like "Press 'B' to jump!" and skip away.

- One encounter near the central train hub when I was with my ex-girlfriend, her brother and his "it's complicated" where we knew something like eleven languages between us and they just pressed on with "Francais?!" over and over again. Only then, when we shrugged, gave up and excused ourselves, I heard some of the rustiest, most reluctant of attempts at English in my life. They looked tortured and probably knew only a few hundred words between them.

Seriously, the last time you had a reasonable chance of walking up to someone in Poland and expect them to know French we had compulsory classical languages, noble class and were probably called "Duchy of Warsaw". Still, they persist.

Though, in fairrrrness, it's not exclusive to French people. Poles and Germans, on average and in my experience, aren't much when it comes to foreign languages. We just usually don't think it's a cardinal sin to at least try English if we happen to know it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

am_Unition  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trip report - Monts Groulx
Devac  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Literally every exchange I had with a French tourist.

am_Unition  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You should go to town if you've got anecdotes, we have almost no French/Quebecois representation here. Bait them!

The only time I've felt ostracized by the French is when I used one of their subways during rush hour with a massive duffel bag, on my way to the airport. To be fair, I took up too much space. Someone farted (big time), perhaps in protest, and I can respect that. The person I was with assured me that the French rip ass on public transport all of the time, but I dunno, maybe that same person was the perpetrator.

Devac  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Not really. The two truly remarkable ones (out of 15-20 so far, roughly estimating) were:

- A guy whom I presumed to be so offended by my pathetic level of French and attempts at using anything else that he just turned around on his feet in the middle of my sentence and walked away in a huff. Then he probably realised I'm the best around because he came back and acted as nothing happened. Perhaps the only time I felt like an NPC, still regret that I didn't say something like "Press 'B' to jump!" and skip away.

- One encounter near the central train hub when I was with my ex-girlfriend, her brother and his "it's complicated" where we knew something like eleven languages between us and they just pressed on with "Francais?!" over and over again. Only then, when we shrugged, gave up and excused ourselves, I heard some of the rustiest, most reluctant of attempts at English in my life. They looked tortured and probably knew only a few hundred words between them.

Seriously, the last time you had a reasonable chance of walking up to someone in Poland and expect them to know French we had compulsory classical languages, noble class and were probably called "Duchy of Warsaw". Still, they persist.

Though, in fairrrrness, it's not exclusive to French people. Poles and Germans, on average and in my experience, aren't much when it comes to foreign languages. We just usually don't think it's a cardinal sin to at least try English if we happen to know it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

am_Unition  ·  14 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trip report - Monts Groulx

Since I had no clue exactly where it was, I google mapped "Monts Groulx" and realized immediately that the area was an impact crater. So cool!

Have you ever watched Letterkenny? I hope their depiction of rural Canada is verbatim, 'cuz I love that show.

elizabeth  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I’ve never watched letterkenny, but from the short clips I’ve seen it’s nothing like around here in Quebec. I feel the French Canadian culture is a bit different from the folks living in Alberta.

am_Unition  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·  
Devac  ·  13 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Literally every exchange I had with a French tourist.

am_Unition  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·  

You should go to town if you've got anecdotes, we have almost no French/Quebecois representation here. Bait them!

The only time I've felt ostracized by the French is when I used one of their subways during rush hour with a massive duffel bag, on my way to the airport. To be fair, I took up too much space. Someone farted (big time), perhaps in protest, and I can respect that. The person I was with assured me that the French rip ass on public transport all of the time, but I dunno, maybe that same person was the perpetrator.

Devac  ·  12 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Not really. The two truly remarkable ones (out of 15-20 so far, roughly estimating) were:

- A guy whom I presumed to be so offended by my pathetic level of French and attempts at using anything else that he just turned around on his feet in the middle of my sentence and walked away in a huff. Then he probably realised I'm the best around because he came back and acted as nothing happened. Perhaps the only time I felt like an NPC, still regret that I didn't say something like "Press 'B' to jump!" and skip away.

- One encounter near the central train hub when I was with my ex-girlfriend, her brother and his "it's complicated" where we knew something like eleven languages between us and they just pressed on with "Francais?!" over and over again. Only then, when we shrugged, gave up and excused ourselves, I heard some of the rustiest, most reluctant of attempts at English in my life. They looked tortured and probably knew only a few hundred words between them.

Seriously, the last time you had a reasonable chance of walking up to someone in Poland and expect them to know French we had compulsory classical languages, noble class and were probably called "Duchy of Warsaw". Still, they persist.

Though, in fairrrrness, it's not exclusive to French people. Poles and Germans, on average and in my experience, aren't much when it comes to foreign languages. We just usually don't think it's a cardinal sin to at least try English if we happen to know it. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

The DOJ has just opened a new investigation into their previous handling of Epstein's case, and I imagine this piece played no small part in the decision. Hats off to Julie Brown and the Miami Herald, and props to Ben Sasse(?!) too.

This is gonna turn up some naaaasty misdeeds if even some small sliver of the Herald's reporting is factual.

am_Unition  ·  23 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: "5000 Troops to Columbia"

“Sending 5k troops into Columbia was the most uninteresting suggestion all meeting, so I had to write it down”

am_Unition  ·  25 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Charles Bukowksi : Bluebird
am_Unition  ·  26 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trump signs bill to end shutdown and temporarily reopen government

    ...his stupid racist symbolic gesture so he can use it to try to give us four more years of this...

I think you are correct in assuming that every move he makes is geared towards ensuring he's re-elected. If somehow his approval rating held steady during the shutdown, he'd have never re-opened the government. Given that he loses in 2020, he'll be indicted for felony campaign finance violation on January 20th, 2021, only months before the five year statute of limitations expires. "Campaign like your life depends on it" is an apt phrase.

    I guess it would magnify the effect but make a measurable change to the tumbling motion?

Maybe! Same story on the experimental side. It depends on our ability to precisely measure a difference in the brightness profile vs. our ability to precisely measure position. And fit either to decent models.

    Wouldn't ejecta from such impact become at least largely demagnetised by a combination of shock and temperature?

Yeah, most probably. That's a really weird range of parameter space to characterize though. Like what if two of Jupiter's moons eventually slammed together, you could actually end up strongly magnetizing a piece of ejecta if it was cooled below the Curie temperature somewhere near its perijove, if it had juuuuuust the right initial conditions.

    I'm not sure (and can't seem to find conclusive papers/sources) if what we measured on Earth is mostly the original, unchanged field.

I hadn't really thought about that before, but now I'm convinced that the magnetic properties of meteors are typically 99%+ compromised by the time they make meteorite status because of the intense heating during atmospheric entry. But dude, that potentially means that the magnetic flux from meteors with large magnetic moments is somehow put into energizing the plasma sheath surrounding the thing during its "shooting star" phase. The worst part is that I don't think anyone will pay you to study such a phenomenon. :(

Devac  ·  26 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    That's a really weird range of parameter space to characterize though. Like what if two of Jupiter's moons eventually slammed together, you could actually end up strongly magnetizing a piece of ejecta if it was cooled below the Curie temperature somewhere near its perijove, if it had juuuuuust the right initial conditions.

But it's a possibility nonetheless. One that didn't even occur to me, doubtlessly there is more that might make my initial intuition completely wrong since I managed to forget about our system's highly magnetic giants.

    But dude, that potentially means that the magnetic flux from meteors with large magnetic moments is somehow put into energizing the plasma sheath surrounding the thing during its "shooting star" phase. The worst part is that I don't think anyone will pay you to study such a phenomenon. :(

Not if your research proposal is "just point a spectrometer and high-speed camera anywhere at random and hope for the best", which is the only strategy that I can think of.

am_Unition  ·  27 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Trump signs bill to end shutdown and temporarily reopen government

Anyone care to speculate on the odds of another stalemate/shutdown in 3 weeks? I'm saying 50-50, mostly because then there's no way I can be wrong.

bfv  ·  27 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I think encouraging Trump to self-immolate is the most useful thing the House can do for the next two years, and I think Pelosi thinks so too.

kleinbl00  ·  26 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Yeah, I got buddies that were furloughed, though, and it's rough losing a month's pay. I think they'd be supportive of your standpoint while also sincerely wishing they could do their jobs. Those overflowing garbage cans and flooded bathrooms at the national parks gotta get dealt with by somebody.

bfv  ·  26 days ago  ·  link  ·  

I hear you, but the options are letting the President have his stupid racist symbolic gesture so he can use it to try to give us four more years of this, or not doing that and letting the tantrum resume. The third option of not letting the President throw his tantrum because there are enough Republicans who would rather not to override a veto isn't going to happen because McConnell isn't going to let it.

kleinbl00  ·  26 days ago  ·  link  ·  

100% agreed. And I can't speak for my friends, but I suspect they'd lean that way, too. I just wish we could find a way to stick it to the Senate instead of the Forest Service.

am_Unition  ·  26 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    ...his stupid racist symbolic gesture so he can use it to try to give us four more years of this...

I think you are correct in assuming that every move he makes is geared towards ensuring he's re-elected. If somehow his approval rating held steady during the shutdown, he'd have never re-opened the government. Given that he loses in 2020, he'll be indicted for felony campaign finance violation on January 20th, 2021, only months before the five year statute of limitations expires. "Campaign like your life depends on it" is an apt phrase.

am_Unition  ·  27 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: The midrange shot is dead

I don’t want to die

am_Unition  ·  27 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Roger Stone has been indicted and arrested

Did the FBI invite CNN to film the arrest? Or was CNN staked out on Stone's street?

Credico is "Person 2" in the indictment.

kleinbl00  ·  27 days ago  ·  link  ·  

https://twitter.com/TeaPainUSA/status/1088625382289539072

    CHECK IT OUT: Tea Pain’s noticed a number of folks reportin’ that a new sealed case (Case 1:19-cr-0018) showed up in the D.C. court today.

That's as of 13 hours ago. So every news organization you know had about nine hours to go "so... whose houses do we want to stake out? Just, you know, in case?"

Looks like CNN wins.

    Sounds like hurricanes and floods did this.

Nope. If you read the study, you will see that data was collected in 1976 and '77, and then much later, in 2011, '12, and '13. Pretty far into the study, they actually do summarize the effects of hurricanes on frogs found by a previous study:

    The temporal pattern of E. coqui abundances in Woolbright’s (29, 30) El Verde study area (SI Appendix, Fig. S3B) departs from the monotonic, negative trends found in the other E. coqui populations, and required a segmented regression consisting of three phases. In the first phase, E. coqui numbers had a significant negative trend followed by a rapid increase during phase 2 from 6 to 57 individuals between January and October 1990, most likely due to immigration from surrounding areas following Hurricane Hugo. In phase 3, the population resumed a steady decline at about the same rate as phase 1, until the census ended 6 y later. The rapid return to the preperturbation rate of decline suggests the ongoing influence of climate change on birth and death rates.

So although the frog population did take a hit from Hugo (1989), it bounced back due to an influx from nearby habitats. Especially for winged insects, the population of insects is likely to behave quite similarly. Regardless, these fluctuations are superimposed on top of a gradual decay in population for both frogs and insects.

    How can they say 98%? Did they inspect 100% of the rainforest?

No, they use statistics. If you have several sampling points scattered throughout the jungle and use a methodology identical to what you used back in the 1970's, you're going to get a good idea of general trends. As is standard practice, the scientists included their error bars in Figure 2 (see above link again). The downward trend is far inside any experimental uncertainty.

    Higher taxes and we still pollute the same amount or more than last year.

    ...

    It is all one giant money grab.

First of all, "pollute" is too broad of a term. This is about CO2 emission levels. And the data shows that the U.S. has indeed been reducing its emissions. Now, I concede that it's damn near impossible to definitively prove that imposing additional regulations (that is what you mean by higher taxes, right?) is what's responsible for the recent reduction in annual CO2 emissions. But that's still something I'd assert as almost certainly true.

The free market is even trying to convince you that climate change is forreal. And if you know how incredibly asshole-ish most scientists are, you'd realize that the climate change hypothesis would have been delightfully torn apart by peer review several decades ago, but here we are.

Money's nice, just not as nice as a stable global ecosystem.

user-inactivated  ·  31 days ago  ·  link  ·  

One of the things that we should pay attention to is that even though insects in temperate climates tend to be a bit more resilient than in tropical climates, their populations can be severely damaged from stressors such as reduction in habitat, changes in temperatures, competing against new species of insects, animals, and diseases that spread due to climate change, pesticides, and many other factors. This study is a big red alarm, because if populations can drop so drastically in such a short period of time, we really need to be more vigilant in other environments, starting yesterday.

pidu87  ·  31 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Thank you for taking the time to dissect and respond to my nonintellectual post. I was originally going to debate your response but I am in no way knowledgeable about insect populations in Puerto Rico (I've been there once while I was a teenager many many years ago).

I have my opinions and selected "facts" to support those opinions as everyone does. My opinions are to one extreme (skepticism/greed) others might be to the other extreme faith (In the human, in the science, in the observations, in the "most favored opinion", etc).

What if we chose a dipole moment for 'Oumuamua consistent with a superconducting medium, just to be conservative? That'd take some physics in and of itself just to get a best guess and some error bars. Like I said though, it still might not matter, because if we're seeing a quasi-chaotic rotation, there's no preferred orientation over an 8-ish hour period. But I guess it's possible that for big events (like coronal mass ejections), the shock front arrival in the solar wind could do some pretty big pushing or pulling via magnetic coupling. I would wanna see the 'Oumuamua position/acceleration data, and then I would look at the solar wind data and make some cheap little analytical model of expected forces. I'd keep Oumuamua's rotation phase angle as a free parameter. The solar wind data source I usually use is FURLOUGHED, by the way :(.

Right, so, about the thing you actually prompted me about. The superimposed blue and red squiggles circumscribing the solar disk are the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation, which is very clearly a function of solar cycle. In the first panel, six years of data from Ulysses (a polar orbiting sun-observing satellite) is shown. The first six years were generally near solar minimum, unlike the second panel, whereas during the second 6 year orbit, the sun was generally near solar maximum. So if 'Oumuamua was ~20 degrees off of the solar equatorial plane (which is itself only +/-5 degrees from the ecliptic plane), it could maybe see a heavily-preferred magnetic field. People model this stuff hardcore, btw, and my bad if I've linked that before. But maybe big events could more clearly influence 'Oumuamua, either from a huge moment via comically large superconductivity, or a thin disk interacting with the solar wind ram pressure, or both. Again, depends on observational fidelity.

Edit: regarding the Ulysses data, I just read the written paragraph on the site and I didn't give much more than was already there, so specific questions are welcome.

As an example, if Mars were to have something hit it, and a chunk was to break off, it would be a magnetized chunk, albeit extremely weak compared to a superconducting moment (duh, srry, pedantry). The Martian mantle cooled below the Curie temperature like a billion years ago and the local orientation of the global magnetic field was frozen in. I dunno about asteroids, that study makes it sound like they can have pretty big magnetic moments. Comets are probably never magnetized whatsoever, or at least the one we've visited had no measurable moment. Maybe we should consider the possibility that it's neutral.

So just consider everything, good advice, am_Unition, thx!

Devac  ·  31 days ago  ·  link  ·  

Thanks for the explanation. I'll probably ask questions in a separate post.

    What if we chose a dipole moment for 'Oumuamua consistent with a superconducting medium, just to be conservative?

I guess it would magnify the effect but make a measurable change to the tumbling motion? That is unless your probe has some inertia dampeners next to its tachyon coils. ;)

For an idealised case with weaker magnetic fields (i.e. not strong enough to forcibly change the superconductor's nature to one of the mixed states/phases), it would also be solely and universally repelled from the incoming solar wind and said magnetic field, so there's your acceleration source.

    As an example, if Mars were to have something hit it, and a chunk was to break off, it would be a magnetized chunk, albeit extremely weak compared to superconducting moment. The Martian mantle cooled below the Curie temperature like a billion years ago and the local orientation of the global magnetic field was frozen in.

Wouldn't ejecta from such impact become at least largely demagnetised by a combination of shock and temperature? Especially seeing how it would be cooling in the interplanetary space. I know that Martian meteorites are slightly magnetic, but I'm not sure (and can't seem to find conclusive papers/sources) if what we measured on Earth is mostly the original, unchanged field.

am_Unition  ·  27 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    I guess it would magnify the effect but make a measurable change to the tumbling motion?

Maybe! Same story on the experimental side. It depends on our ability to precisely measure a difference in the brightness profile vs. our ability to precisely measure position. And fit either to decent models.

    Wouldn't ejecta from such impact become at least largely demagnetised by a combination of shock and temperature?

Yeah, most probably. That's a really weird range of parameter space to characterize though. Like what if two of Jupiter's moons eventually slammed together, you could actually end up strongly magnetizing a piece of ejecta if it was cooled below the Curie temperature somewhere near its perijove, if it had juuuuuust the right initial conditions.

    I'm not sure (and can't seem to find conclusive papers/sources) if what we measured on Earth is mostly the original, unchanged field.

I hadn't really thought about that before, but now I'm convinced that the magnetic properties of meteors are typically 99%+ compromised by the time they make meteorite status because of the intense heating during atmospheric entry. But dude, that potentially means that the magnetic flux from meteors with large magnetic moments is somehow put into energizing the plasma sheath surrounding the thing during its "shooting star" phase. The worst part is that I don't think anyone will pay you to study such a phenomenon. :(

Devac  ·  26 days ago  ·  link  ·  

    That's a really weird range of parameter space to characterize though. Like what if two of Jupiter's moons eventually slammed together, you could actually end up strongly magnetizing a piece of ejecta if it was cooled below the Curie temperature somewhere near its perijove, if it had juuuuuust the right initial conditions.

But it's a possibility nonetheless. One that didn't even occur to me, doubtlessly there is more that might make my initial intuition completely wrong since I managed to forget about our system's highly magnetic giants.

    But dude, that potentially means that the magnetic flux from meteors with large magnetic moments is somehow put into energizing the plasma sheath surrounding the thing during its "shooting star" phase. The worst part is that I don't think anyone will pay you to study such a phenomenon. :(

Not if your research proposal is "just point a spectrometer and high-speed camera anywhere at random and hope for the best", which is the only strategy that I can think of.