Sounds like a lovely holiday. I'm really happy that you enjoyed your time there ! Thanks for sharing.
It reminds me that I have to do a tripreport about Scotland ! I was there end of April and it was amazing. If you are into hiking, I highly recommend Sgurr Na Stri.
When you come to Paris, send me a pm :)
Yes it's crypto. But can we be honest for a second and distinguish two subsets of crypto, one that is decentralized & permissionless vs one that is centralized and permissioned ? Can we agree that Jamie Dimon thinks the first one is going nowhere while he believes that the second one can optimize current processes ? Can we agree that we are not agreeing with this because both of us believes the first one will really change things (disruption) while the second one will only do some improvements ? Can we agree that since the beginning Jamie Dimon didn't change his line of thinking in regards to these two subsets ? Can we agree that creating a narrative as if he did isn't legitimate ?
Happy New Year Hubski !
Uncertainty. And thankful. I'm 25 years old, single, employed, with a college degree and living with my mom and brother. - I don't know precisely on what I want to work on, on what problems to solve. I have a deep confidence that I can learn and focus on something and become good at it if I really dedicate my time and effort there. My lack of decision-making relating to that big decision, and others, paralizes me in some way. I'm particularly interested in crypto (public blockchains), mobility (self driving cars, mobility as a service, electrification), travel (adventure, photos, movies / still have to do my tripreport from Canada x Alaska, and will be able to as soon as I get my computer fixed) or starting my own company* in something I believe in (e.g. I think I have a great idea but no technical knowledge and with the competition I would need to raise millions to be able to execute. The idea is 'Carpooling on demand' and it improves current solutions on multiple levels (I'm thinking about Uber for the on-demand part and Blablacar for the carpooling part). It would cost way less per trip than Uber, it would be a way more 'instant' and 'direct' experience than Blablacar. Less congestion and pollution because you don't add any cars compared to Uber. It scales with mobility as a service solution and self-driving cars beautifully. I think it would be hard to penetrate the US Market but I'm confident it would work quite well in France. The end-of-state scenario would be: xx.xx$/months. Unlimited Car Pooling, Worldwide. Price could vary if you want to add options about being able to use public transport, scooters, and other mobility solutions). - I don't know where I want to live ; - I don't know if I want to be a dad one day or if I want a life full of adventure and travel ; - I don't know how to make these decisions because I feel like the 'me' in three years from now might have a different opinion on what I should have done. - I'm thankful that these are the questions I'm wondering about. That I have choices. For those of you who went through this and others who have an opinion about it: how did you chose between your options, and why? What questions did you ask yourself at the time?
It was exceptional. Writing a tripreport is on my to do list since I came back but I obviously failed to take the time to do it. I will post it on Hubski before the end of next week :)
I should probably write something about my Marathon experience, that was a fun watch.
Internship Hunt I'm having my first interviews for my end-of-study internship tomorrow and on monday. Yaay. It starts to take form. I'm not sure I would be that excited to join either firm though, I will need to get more informations about the missions, but I will definitely take the chance to practice my interviewee skills. Entertainment I enjoyed "La Casa de Papel" tv series. Loved that it was in spanish. You should watch the first ep, and you will probably be hooked. It's about a fictional heist of the Royal Mint of Spain.
That was amazing to watch.
I can confirm. Planet Earth II is well worth a watch !
- Running my first Marathon, even if I wasn't able to train as I wanted to - Ending university, getting my master's degree - Finding an internship that will then transform into a full time job in consulting strategy ; - Leverage the concept of compound interest, be it for relationships, sports, or financial investment ; - Finding a flat in Paris to rent, when I have secured a job ; - Travel more in France. I feel like I don't really know my country ; - Read more. Pay attention to where my attention goes. Reduce shot-attention span-things for more in depth reading. This one is hard. Moonshot goal: being able to pay my student debt (42k€) from my 500€ investment in cryptocurrency back in June 2017. 2017 was one of the best year of my life. Lets try to make 2018 better !
I don't have any money in the stock market, but I get the feeling that it will pop in 2018. I wonder if crypto will increase as a consequence. I believe so, but who knows. 3 days ago : https://www.businessinsider.nl/goldman-sachs-thinks-were-heading-into-a-bear-market-2017-10/?international=true&r=US 5 months ago : https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/big-picture-ray-dalio/ - There are significant long-term problems (e.g., high debt and non-debt obligations, limited abilities by central banks to stimulate, etc.) that are likely to create a squeeze, - Social and political conflicts are near their worst for the last number of decades, and - Conflicts get worse when economies worsen. Two days ago: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-16/a-crazy-stock-market-is-punishing-sellersGoldman Sachs has circulated a fascinating but scary research note to clients suggesting that the probability of stocks entering a bear market in the next 24 months currently stands at about 88%
Big picture, the near term looks good and the longer term looks scary. That is because:
- The economy is now at or near its best, and we see no major economic risks on the horizon for the next year or two,“Two rockets flew over the land mass of Japan and nothing happened,” says Mark Connors, Credit Suisse’s global head of risk advisory. “There were no calls. That’s absolutely crazy.”
It is just for the president. Regional elections will be held in 2021, and local elections in 2020. The presidential election is the one which gets people crazy the most, but there are still some tensions in regionals and local elections. What’s going to be up soon after are the Legislative Election in June (first round: 11 june, second round: 18 june), which will let the people vote for members of parliament. It will also be a very interesting election (as Trump said about this one) as it will tell if the President will be able to execute his program easily or if there is going to be a lot of opposition if he doesn’t get the majority. The delay of two weeks between the two rounds is due to the delay necessary by the Constitutional Council to check if there is any complaint, to announce the official results, and to let the possibility of one candidate to withdraw.
This is really great.
I firmly believe that climate change is the biggest challenge we are facing down the road and the position of Trump and his team scares me. Sure, creating fossil fuels-related jobs is going to help some people in the short term and offer cheap energy sources while providing jobs, but it's disastrous in the long term. Then again, I'm young and should be able to find a job easily when I will have my degree. If I put myself in the position of the people who lost their jobs due to the global economy and who have a chance of having a future and provide for their family, thanks to new regulations which will provide new jobs, would I sacrifice myself for the long term benefits of the human species ? I doubt it. I also believe that the rise in inequality are driving us in this terrible situation. When the basic needs of the people are met, they will think about the environment, but if they are in a constant struggle to make ends-meet, they will focus on what's impacting them now. In addition to an absolute gain in value of what life has to offer, we must not diverge too much in terms of relative value from one another, otherwise we are putting everything at risk. It's a strange and difficult balance to find, but I think it's necessary if we hope to live in a world which provides to everyone. In this regard, social networks and the fake aggregators of our best moments drive us apart rather than connect us. In China, there is obviously a direct causation between climate change and health and the people are feeling a basic need to act on that. In the US, it's more like a systemic causation and it's more complex. And that's why it's not on the ballot for most people. George Lakoff spoke about this & understanding Trump : https://georgelakoff.com/2016/07/23/understanding-trump-2/ Direct causation is dealing with a problem via direct action. Systemic causation recognizes that many problems arise from the system they are in and must be dealt with via systemic causation. Systemic causation has four versions: A chain of direct causes. Interacting direct causes (or chains of direct causes). Feedback loops. And probabilistic causes. Systemic causation in global warming explains why global warming over the Pacific can produce huge snowstorms in Washington DC: masses of highly energized water molecules evaporate over the Pacific, blow to the Northeast and over the North Pole and come down in winter over the East coast and parts of the Midwest as masses of snow. Systemic causation has chains of direct causes, interacting causes, feedback loops, and probabilistic causes — often combined. Direct causation is easy to understand, and appears to be represented in the grammars of all languages around the world. Systemic causation is more complex and is not represented in the grammar of any language. It just has to be learned. Empirical research has shown that conservatives tend to reason with direct causation and that progressives have a much easier time reasoning with systemic causation. The reason is thought to be that, in the strict father model, the father expects the child or spouse to respond directly to an order and that refusal should be punished as swiftly and directly as possible. Many of Trump’s policy proposals are framed in terms of direct causation. Immigrants are flooding in from Mexico — build a wall to stop them. For all the immigrants who have entered illegally, just deport them — even if there are 11 million of them working throughout the economy and living throughout the country. The cure for gun violence is to have a gun ready to directly shoot the shooter. To stop jobs from going to Asia where labor costs are lower and cheaper goods flood the market here, the solution is direct: put a huge tariff on those goods so they are more expensive than goods made here. To save money on pharmaceuticals, have the largest consumer — the government — take bids for the lowest prices. If Isis is making money on Iraqi oil, send US troops to Iraq to take control of the oil. Threaten Isis leaders by assassinating their family members (even if this is a war crime). To get information from terrorist suspects, use water-boarding, or even worse torture methods. If a few terrorists might be coming with Muslim refugees, just stop allowing all Muslims into the country. All this makes sense to direct causation thinkers, but not those who see the immense difficulties and dire consequences of such actions due to the complexities of systemic causation.Direct vs. Systemic Causation
Finished the 5 levels with my mouse on the second try, I used to play a lot of SCII, that might explain why.
Back in the bus to NYC. It was a wonderful little weekend. Started as most of Hubski woulf have expected : the bus was late. So late that the next bus arrived before mine. I don't understand how that's physically possible. I was supposed to go at 11:59pm, next bus was at 1:30 am so I jumped on that one even if I had to do one extra stop at Philadelphia because Megabus wasn't able to tell me when my bus was supposed to arrive. The guy next to me had a flight to catch at 7am in DC. We were supposed to be there at 4:15 am, we arrived at 7. Good news: they said they were going to compensate us. But don't know when or how that's going to happen. First things first in DC, after a bit of sightseeing near the Capitol I went to take a breakfast with wasoxygen and we talked for a long time about a lot of different topics, it was awesome and got some new perspectives on some ideas. We didn't picture the moment though but it did happen! After that, it was already around 10:30 so I went directly to the Air & Space Museum. It was family day and they had some events. I saw an Astronaut (forgot his name) speak about joining NASA : 18 000 applicants, 14 spots. I saw a lot of different things, there was the real Wright Brothers first plane, that was great. Then I went to see the Washington Monument and the White House. Spend a lot of time there, there were people chanting together and that was nice. A storm was coming around 6pm so I decided to walk from the Mall to Meriadoc's place (50mins). Spend dinner and the night there, they had a Burlesque show going on and that was the first time I saw one, it was quite fun. Their beers are wonderful. arguewithatree and Meriadoc were really nice. I tried to wake up early on day 2 (7:30), to get to the Mall. There, I did the rest of it (went up the Washington Monument, there were no places left the day before), World War II, Vietnam, Korea, Einstein, Roosevelt and Jefferso Memorial. Kind of tired after all that as it was really hot so I ate late and chilled a bit before going on the bus back to NYC. I have some nice photos that I will share when I take the time to do it. Overall amazing experiece, would meet Hubski again. You have created a great community.
That's great ! I'm planning to go to DC, Baltimore and Philadelphia in July. I checked bus cost and it seems duable to take the bus on a friday night, arrive saturday morning, enjoy the day and left Sunday pm. If someone can offer me a couch on the saturday night it would be perfect and I would gladly pay you a beer :) (I'm a 23 years old student, very low maintenance and don't smoke).
It's funny, because I use a Hubski sticker as a bookmark : Pushing back the dark, one page at a time.
That was a great Meethubski ! Thanks for sharing.
Speed up video of the re-entry : It's amazing.
That's great ! How did you train for it ?
Summer is coming!
That's surprising, I almost never encountered that in school. It's only when I had a course on epistemology at the faculty that the idea really seemed to emerged. Then I read two books that influenced me in some way : Surely You're Joking, Mr Feynman by Richard Feynman and The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb where the ideas to not trust experts and to go try to understand the roots of a problem connected with me. It's funny that you mention the respect to authority because it's true that in France, whether it's at school or at work, we really have a "structure" around that and I feel it's slowing down the whole process of thinking and achieving understanding by ourselves. We "learn" and don't "understand", we "trust" and don't "verify". It's true that we definitely try to go up the chain of command when injustice is felt though, but I guess a part of it comes from our national motto 'Liberty, Equality, Fraternity': if inequality is felt at a level where we can have direct power/action towards it, we are going to try to solve it.
Looks great! I'm definitely in.
I think it's a good idea to implement some game mechanics to it.
Yes. But what's important is the implication : when you are in a liquidity trap, you can't use only monetary policy as a lever for growth. On this graph (it represents the key interest rate from the FED, BCE, BoJ), you can see that the FED (in red) lowered it's interest rate after the crisis. They wanted banks to lend again and it worked. We are still in 2015 at a very low rate, and the US is currently in a liquidity trap and it has been the case for 5-6 years. Janet Yellen (FMI's director) should announce today an increase of this key interest rate (how much the banks pays the FED to have money) : the US should step out of the liquidity trap today. The US government used all sorts of policy to get the economy back up. Now that it seems stable, the FED is stopping the quantitative easing (a monetary policy which is not supposed to happen where you buy, among other things, private securities) and wants to increase the interest rate to be able to target the 2% inflation rate. It's not hard to understand and I'm not trying to complicate things (but I could be clearer). But wanting to explain the whole thing in one sentence where you don't explain the difference between fiscal/monetary policy and how the key interest rate from the FED impacts the economy and could lead in what is called "liquidity trap" doesn't let you understand what a liquidity trap is and what it means for the economy.When people are talking about a country in a liquidity trap, they're talking about whether that country has freely flowing cash in its economy
