LOL I feel you man. The sensible question is what's your upside and downside risk?

Your downside risk is however much you've already piled into crypto. It's very easy to take that top number you didn't sell at, subtract your holdings now and call that your "loss." That's not accurate, though. Your loss is your money in minus your money out. By the former, I'm down seven figures. By the latter I'm up a Porsche, some biotech investment and several thousand dollars into a friend's kidneys. I was up four orders of magnitude. I'm now up three. This is due to no strategy or brilliance of my own yet when I look at it that way, I'm Warren Fucking Buffett. When I look at it the other way I'm holding a sock puppet with a microphone.

Your upside risk in crypto is utterly fucking unknowable. The design price of the satoshi was a penny. There are 100,000,000 satoshis in a bitcoin. Ergo, the design price of BTC was $1m per BTC. The maximum number of bitcoins minable is 21,000,000; the bitcoin ecosystem was intended to be worth $21 trillion dollars. Note that this is nowhere near the presumed size of the world economy, which is generally taken to be between 60 trillion and 70 trillion dollars. It is, however, pretty close to US Treasury and other estimates of the approximate size of the world's black market, which gives certain credence to theories as to who Satoshi Nakamoto really is.

And that's just presuming that there's a 100% successful case of adoption of bitcoin by the black market. Suppose 10% of the black market adopts bitcoin? Now your intrinsic value is $100k. Suppose only 1% of the black market adopts bitcoin? Well, we're there then. Right now, though, it looks like 0.1% of black market transactions are BTC and that number is a long, long way from certain. Meanwhile 90% of BTC transactions are traders.

Intrinsic value of ETH? Take the uncertainty of BTC and multiply it by the fact that ETH actually has use cases beyond "chinese Tongs paying each other for human trafficking."

https://ourworldindata.org/exports/world-gdp-over-the-last-two-millennia_v2_850x600.svg

So. Downside risk is "whatever you've already invested minus what you've already pulled out." Upside risk is "more data needed." And that's why the market is full of hodlers and developers.