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The Dust Bowl took two years of "hey this is a drought", before people started dying and were forced to migrate - penniless - to simply survive. They were not welcomed by their neighboring states, and there were only 250,000 of them. (Phoenix alone has 1.6m.) Weather events are already completely off the scale, and becoming ever harder to predict. Knock-on effects of increased bad weather - like the disappearing beaches in the southeast - take us by surprise. (How many city blocks deep of South Carolina's coast have to vanish in a storm, before people start abandoning the coastal area, and moving somewhere inland?) Something is going to snap. An edge will be reached. It won't be gradual, is my bet.