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wasoxygen  ·  2832 days ago  ·  link  ·    ·  parent  ·  post: Pubski: July 20, 2016

    I'd put it at around 90%

I have seen evidence that you are a better Bayesian than I, but if I understand correctly this means that if you had to bet, you would be indifferent given the choice of betting for Clinton, paying 10-to-1 against, and betting for Trump, paying 1-to-10.

I think I would go for Trump at those odds.