Meeting with Creativity for breakfast was the highlight of a busy weekend spent attached to screens monitoring events in Turkey.

On my way to Firehook I passed a storefront with a live display of positions with prices on various political events. It was a prediction market, a powerful forecasting tool that I had little hope of seeing after Intrade was shut down.

We talked a lot about science and the difficulties of obtaining knowledge. I saw Feynman and Kahneman in Creativity's book collection.

I kept him over two hours yet we never got around to talking about running. At one point my phone chirped and we watched a Periscope feed of people climbing on an abandoned tank on a street in Turkey.

I got a coupon from the prediction market and later opened an account, geting a $15 match as promised.

Now I have $50 to bet and grow. It is an educational site, with limits on volume, but wins and losses are real. They collect 10% of all profit.

I can today buy shares at 66¢ that will pay a dollar (less fee) once we are delivered from a Trump White House.

I take some comfort whenever I hear reassurance that the lesser of two evils will prevail in November, and believe this is what will happen ... but when I have to put my money down my confidence drops. Maybe I should just wait a bit longer and see what happens at the convention. But then, if things become more clear, the price will change to reflect the new understanding. I see why prediction markets are so effective at weeding out baseless opinionators and encouraging the well-informed to speak up.