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wasoxygen · 3597 days ago · link · · parent · post: The War Nerd: Here’s everything you need to know about “too extreme for Al Qaeda” I.S.I.S.
I am betting against expensive oil, so expensive beef would help me win the wager, though if I win due to cattle scarcity that would not very well serve my larger point that material welfare is getting better for people over time. The Big Mac index has already risen significantly more sharply than inflation. A spike in prices due to the drought-induced shortage would be a perfectly Simonian trigger to provide incentive for more people to produce beef and beef substitutes, restoring supply and driving prices back down. As you point out, substitutes for oil seem more likely in the near future. One of Simon's important points is that people do not really want sticky, messy petroleum, they just want their cars to go.