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    Based on the trend since 2004, Big Macs should be around $4.95 when the bet matures in December 2015...

That's assuming that the trend continues. I doubt it will. From everything I remember reading last summer, the price of meat is expected to rise sharply in the near term, due to the epic drought that the West has experienced in recent years. Last summer they had to cull the cattle heard fairly dramatically, which made prices fall last year, due to oversupply, but will likely make them rise this year and next, because the cattle that should have been mature are already dead, creating a lack of supply. The trend does look pretty stable, but with that pressure coupled with more and more fuel efficient cars (especially cool ones that people actually want to drive) coming on the market all the time, I think the BM (pun intended) will carry the day.